2022 VFV NFL P.O.W. Contest Week #18 (January 7-8); Post Selections Here

[Archie8]

POW 10-7
Tennessee +6.5 Caesars

Too many points for Jacksonville to cover.
Jacksonville has covered four straight games, but they are 0-3 this season as a home favorite.

Titans have nothing to brag about being an underdog lately.
Lost four straight games outright as an underdog of at least six points (1-3 ATS). (Stats may vary on ATS)
Last 6 games 0-5-1 ATS

Mike Vrabel is 10-4 ATS on extra rest (8-2 ATS since 2019).
Road teams are 31-22 ATS in prime-time games this season (road underdogs: 21-13 ATS).

With Tennessee resting players , the extra time to prepare, and the hook, those are the reasons why I'm taking the Titans to cover.

During the final two weeks of the regular season since 2003, teams with a winning percentage between 40 and 60% that are also 5-to-25% better than their opponent by win rate are an abysmal 48-84-5 against the spread (ATS), failing to cover 64% of the time by 2.7 points per game.
Jags fit this trend along with the the Dolphins, Seahawks, Steelers, Bucs, and Saints for week 18.

[bullybeater]

NFL POW 11-6
CAR/NO over 41.5 (Caesars)
On the who knows last week card I'll take a stab at total with 2 teams out of it.Hoping turns into playground game where no one wants to tackle.And other houses at 42.5 so getting decent # 27-20 kinda game

[DaveyShines]

8-8 Pitt -2 1/2 everywhere Missed the best of the number but will go with the Steelers who are at home, healthier, still in the playoff hunt and riding a surge of momentum since TJ Watt returned.

[Mr.OutsideVegas]

P.O.W. 9-8
CLE-PIT under 40 (Circa)

No one has under performed me since I started 6-0. I’ll live for the playoffs with this one. Both teams lack offensive firepower and under looks like a lock — but I’ve been wrong far more often than right since Week 7. I don’t recall ever making it to postseason in the contest. GO LOW!

[RacingCat]

NFL POW 10-6
Indianapolis Colts-2.5 (South Point)

This is a bowl game, the Toilet Bowl. Texans had been playing well until last week when they laid down versus Jacksonville, I believe they will lay down here too. A Texans loss ensures Houston the Home pick in the draft in April so this is a must lose spot. While I certainly think the Texans players will try, I don't expect the Texans to put forth the best effort from an organizational standpoint to win. Won't shock me if we see less than optimal play calling from the Texans in this game.

On the opposite sideline we have Jeff Saturday who legitimately wants to win, possibly believes he can retain the head coaching gig. Looking at the 4 units on field (offense and defense for both teams), I believe the Colts defense is the strongest of the 4. Bottom line, I just don't expect the Texans to do much and I only need the Colts to win by a FG to cover. Seems reasonable to me, I will play the least attractive game of the week.

[RacingCat]

A Texans loss ensures FIRST pick in draft. Not sure why "Home" ended up in explanation above.

[Mr Pixter]

POW 11 - 5
Colts - Texans Under 38 MGM
Nothing on the line here other than a draft pick so nobody wants to win. Hoping the offense cares less than the defense on both teams part and the total will be in the low 30's.

[Taketheredeye]

POW 8-8-1 (8.5 pts)
In the do or die bunch.

Raiders +9.5 (circa)

KC won last 4, two of which were Denver & Houston neither by more than 6. 8 of KC wins by less than a TD.

LV lost only 1 by more than 7.

GLA

[bimmercando]

POW - Finale 9-6-2 = 9 points
(Squeaked out a tie last week which broke the losing streak.)

LV Raiders +9.5 (Circa)

KC doesn't win by too many and a win by a FG or less will satisfy them.
An upset by LVS would be no surprise here.

So many other "surefire win" games always had some factor to stop my post here.
Time for a Tuley dog play?


GL to All

[bimmercando]

Is it that the Raiders are that bad or the more obvious the Chiefs/Mahoomes are that good? Friggin' loser pick.

[Ray]

And I’m out, I started out ok but fizzled pretty badly the back half of the season pretty much the same with my betting, fortunately I had a stronger college season than I typically do, great work by those of you go are still alive. I’ll be following along best of luck the rest of the what up and looking forward to next season.

[Aztec10]

POW YTD (8-7-2) 9 pts. Remember the Titans + 6.5 @ Duvall County Jags South Point 08:57 PST

Titans have had a couple weeks to prepare for this spot, as the game last thursday night v dallas was nothing more than getting some playing time for Dobbs. The walking wounded on tennessee's defense look to be returning just in time for the mini playoff game tonight. This is going to be a battle, as Coach Vrabel will dial up a game plan looking to keep the game score in the low to mid 30's. Should QB Trevor get his downfield passing attack dialed in early and the jags jump out to a 10-14 point lead, it will be time to purchase tickets to next week's playoff game v most likely the chargers. I expect 30-35 touches for henry, a couple shots downfield to burks to loosen the box a bit. Everything points to the jags continuing their winning ways and completing this longshot playoff push. I just wonder if playing a game as nearly a touchdown favorite is a spot this team is comfortable with. Expectations are high on their side, not so much for tennessee. Coach Vrabel's teams have always been at their best when the talking heads look past them. Tonight may be the last stand for many on this team. I think they rise to the occasion and win a 4 quarter slugfest. They contain lawrence to some extent, shut down the jags rushing attack, and squeeze out a victory at the buzzer. 19-17 Titans.

[JIMMYJAM4508]

NFL POW

11-6

DA Raiders +9.5. Every where

Seems like a popular pick in here. Let’s face it QB Stidham who has been Carrs back up for several years played really good last week. If he plays like that and Big Boy JJ continues his fearless running I see Da Raiders winning this one pretty easily. Let’s face it Da Raiders learned a lot this year but they suffered some tough beasts including a 1 point loss to Patty Boy on KC. KC has a lot on the line, but I truly think their Defense stinks, they beat everyone this year who stinks for the most part by 3 points. KC going to playoffs.Raiders are not. This is the Raiders playoff . They bring everything and have a great shot at the TULEY Cover! Send it it on the Da Raiders!!!!!

[tospeke]

NFL POW 8-7-2

PIT -2.5 South Point

I would echo what DaveyShines said, the team is better with Watt back. I like the 2.5 number. It's a good story that a team that started 2-6 has a shot at making the playoffs. The Steelers are 6-2 in their last 8, are at home, the Browns are just ok.

[Mrvolo]

POW 10-7
Jets +4 South Point
i know Bills win and Miami is in with a win but with no Tua and maybe Bridgewater we have a rookie QB and Jets not rolling over with it’s good defense.Close game and 4 pointe could help.GL

[Pittsburgh]

10-6
Steelers -2.5 (everywhere)

Lots of motivation for the Steelers to win this game. Win and they still need help to get into the playoffs but I know there is a lot of motivation to give Tomlin another .500 or better season. Browns have mentally packed up for the off-season and the drama with Clowney earlier this week doesn't help the Browns mental game.

[Xavier Rob]

NFL Pow (8-9-0)

Cincinnati -9 (Circa)

I'm somehow still in this, so going with my Bengals to cover in a game they need. They may still be in sort of a funk after what happened Monday, but what the league has done the past couple days put them back in a football mindset. They don't want a coin flip deciding where they'll play next week, plus from all indications they're not happy with the ruling that a coin flip could determine it. I think they come out mad, put away Baltimore early and don't look back.