2022-23 NFL P.O.W. Playoffs (rules, format, post wild-card round pick here)

[DaveTuley]

Welcome to the official P.O.W. Playoff thread (we'll have a new one for each round). Congrats also to the 31 qualifiers, which topped last year's record of 27 (only 12 in the 2020 season).

My apologies for not posting this earlier as I promised to post it on Wednesday. As I'm juggling a ton of things this time of year, it slipped my mind earlier today (kinda surprised no one texted or private messaged me, but I'd like to think it was just people respecting my privacy and knew I'd get to it), And, you now what? Being on Pacific Time, I'm not a liar LMEAO).

For those new to the P.O.W. playoff format, instead of everyone shopping around for their lines during the week, we post the available plays and replace the line shopping from the regular season with the most widely available best number for each side of the spread and total. Your points earned during the regular season are your betting units for the playoffs and you can risk 1-5 units (note: this is where we expect the annual protest from Seahawk RIck to allow contestants to go all-in, but we're still sticking to our guns that this is a "Pick of the Week" contest and it shouldn't turn into a free-for-all to have someone just risk their whole bankroll on a random play in one week. I maintain that if the person leading the contest goes 4-0 in the playoffs and no one can catch them, they've deserved the title. Besides, the main reason for this contest and weekly threads is to share our top plays and reasoning with each other, so the competition is secondary,

Still, we'll award a 1st-place prize of a 2-night stay at a Las Vegas hotel (sorry, you have to get yourself here), plus dinner for 2 with yours truly, plus a VFV shirt and a $100 online gift certificate to NFL.com goes to whoever has the most units after the Super Bowl. Let the chase of CHAMOINLA, our regular-season champ, begin!


CHAMOINLA 16 3 0 16
JSCHANILEC 15 4 0 15
TARB 14 5 0 14
GENZO 13 6 0 13
J. HERB 13 6 0 13
NINERUTEFAN 13 6 0 13
2 HOLLYWOOD 11 6 2 12
ARCHIE 8 12 7 0 12
BARNSTORM 12 7 0 12
COACHV29 12 7 0 12
PITTSBURGH 12 6 0 12
AZTEC10 10 7 2 11
BLUEANDGOLD65 11 6 0 11
BULLYBEATER 11 7 0 11
JIMMYJAM4508 11 7 0 11
MR. PIXTER 11 6 0 11
MTHELLER 11 8 0 11
PHATMAN15 11 7 0 11
SEAHAWK RICK 11 8 0 11
TOSPEAK 10 7 2 11
ASTROID M 10 9 0 10
BIMMERCANDO 9 7 2 10
CASEINPOINT 10 9 0 10
DAVEY SHINES 10 8 0 10
DEANO 10 8 0 10
FLORABAMABOY 10 8 0 10
JPDAWG 10 8 0 10
MRVOLO 10 8 0 10
RACING CAT 10 7 0 10
XAVIER ROB 10 9 0 10
ZJABRONI 9 8 2 10

And here are the contest lines for your P.O.W. picks...yes, there are difference and it's possible that both sides of a side or total can win, but that's how it works in real life. GLA:

Seahawks +10
49ers -9.5
Over 42.5
Under 43.5

Chargers -1.5
Jaguars +2.5
Over 46.5
Under 47.5

Dolphins +11
Bills -9
Over 43.5
Under 43.5

Giants +3
Vikings -2.5
Over 47.5
Under 48.5

Ravens +8.5
Bengals -6.5
Over 40.5
Under 43.5

Cowboys -2.5
Buccaneers +3
Over 44.5
Under 45.5

And, as always, please also including your reasoning for your play (and not just "because the line has moved and I'm taking the best number"). Thanks and GLA

[TARB]

Dallas / TB under 45.5 for 5 units

Defense is the strength of both teams. Both teams are currently struggling to score points. A pick six or two could make me lose this play. Otherwise, I see the defenses pretty much shutting down the offenses. I think that the total finishes up close to the mid thirties.

[mtheller]

11-points available, risking 5

Buffalo -9

This line was set when Vegas was hoping that either Tua or Bridgewater would start. Well, the Dolphins get another week of Skylar Thompson. He was able to play well enough in week 18 against Benny, I mean Flacco, and the Jets, but playoffs, cold weather, and on the road, he will be a deer in headlights. Besides that, Hill and Mostert got banged up last week for the Dolphins.

Hamlin is out of the hospital and the Bills will rally around him. Buffalo scores early and often on both sides of the ball and wins this game in a landslide.

And for a side note, the line is at -13 in most shops now, so we are more than a field goal better with this line.

[DaveyShines]

10 pts Bills -9 Allen vs Skylar Nuff said. Oh, and it is also a great number as it currently at 13 or so. Hamlin has been released from hospital and might be at the game giving Buffalo another emotional boost.

[DaveyShines]

Risking the max.

[Caseinpoint]

10 points risking 5
Giants +3
Still disappointed that after all the input this summer, the format of this contest was never changed. People at the bottom of the ladder have virtually NO chance to win even if they go 4-0 during the playoffs. That being said, every NFL fan knows that the two paper lions in the league are the Cowboys and the Vikings. Even though the Giants are NOT a good team, they’re capable of pulling off the upset against the inconsistent Vikes.

[Mrvolo]

Trust me on this,as I also have 10 points,If you get to 30 points you will win.

[Seahawk Rick]

Win what Volo, a double-double at In & Out Burger? A ticket on a SW flight during a national snowstorm? To be the 5th person on a Star Trek landing party? (They always died)

If you think someone with 10-points is going to jump 20-people to get the championship, you've been wrestling too many alligators down there in South Florida. The guys at the top didn't get there by accident, and while an upset or bad pick on an O/U could bite some, it isn't going to bite 20 or them! I'll give $50 to anyone that starts with 10-points and wins this thing.

[Mr Pixter]

Pts: 11
Risk; 5

I hate the too good to be true lines, but the Bills -9 is just too darn good to pass up. I know Unders and Undedogs are traditionally the play but Bills have far toooo much firepower for the Dolphins who dropped five in a row before the squeaky win over the Jets. The playoffs are no place for third string QB's and Skylar Thompson won't scare the Bills at home where they rarely lose. Bills 35 - Miami 10.

[phatman15]

11 points available
Risking 5
Cincy -6.5

The best team in the NFL over the last two months of the season was arguably Cincy, and without Jackson playing for Baltimore, I see an old fashioned beat-down. Candidly, I thought about the under as well, as I can not see Baltimore scoring much in this game. Baltimore's defense will probably put up a fight, but at the end of this game, I just can not envision Baltimore keeping this game close. Cincy, by 10 or more!! Good luck to all!

[bullybeater]

Buffalo-9 5 units
Hate to play the MOTO game of week,but can't pass up going against 3rd string QB.Looks like perfect weather...for Buffalo lol..Bills on mission to win SB .Steve Makinin on VSIN points out in last 62 WC games just picking winner is 88% against spread

[DaveTuley]

10 points risking 5
Giants +3
Still disappointed that after all the input this summer, the format of this contest was never changed. People at the bottom of the ladder have virtually NO chance to win even if they go 4-0 during the playoffs.

I'm sure Seahawk RIck agrees with you LMEAO...but we took a survey a couple of years ago and the majority agreed not to allow all-in bets, I disagree that those at bottom don't have a chance...they probably need to go 4-0 but so does anyone else for the coveted title Again, it would far less fair to those that were the most consistent pickers all season to change the format just because those at lower end want to "have a chance".

[DaveTuley]

I guess I didn't put a deadline for submissions, so we'll go with kickoff of the game you choose. I was hoping more would have posted their picks even though we have 22 hours until the first game as the overriding purpose of this contest and threads is sharing our top plays with each other. I might add an earlier deadline in the coming weeks. GLA

[Seahawk Rick]

I think some guys were waiting to see if some of the stale lines got more stale! LMEAO!

[Mrvolo]

10 points
Miami/Buffalo 5 units Under 43.5
Buffalo is pumped up and felt they should be seeded on top.They will score early and can not see Miami having any offense.If this happens
look for Buffalo to rest Allen and run the ball in second half.28-10 Buffalo
I agree with Dave about pick deadlines,say start of first game.
GL to all

[Archie8]

12 points
G-Men+3 Risking 5

Last time this season to use the Don Martindale stats.
19-2 SU and 16-4-1 ATS vs. head coaches in their first year with a team, holding them to an average of 16 points and 313 yards
5-0 this season SU & ATS
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games and are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.

Wondering what the G-Men have for opponents in 2023 with new had coaches to use the Don Martindale stats?
So far, Arizona.

[Seahawk Rick]

11 nearly worthless points

Will bet 5 of the nearly worthless points on BUFF -9

I'm not sure why we just don't have a max 1-point bet limit like we do in the regular season if we're handcuffed with the 5-point edict. The winners always bet the max 5-points, and as I told my good friend Volo, somebody with 10 has a better shot at winning Powerball than jumping 20-pickers ahead for you. You earn points with wins all season, and should be able to do whatever you want with them. The strategy of how much to wager each week adds excitement to the tournament instead of sitting and watching which one of the top 5 guys will grab the title. Money management is a part of gambling, but you just have to manage typing a 5 down each week. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. How about next year in the playoffs, you need to pick a side AND an O/U each week to earn your massive 5-point wager to shake it up a bit and put your handicapping skills to a bigger test. Yeah, that idea will be out in Lake Mead with all the dead bodies by sundown...

Dave would have been disappointed if I went quietly into the night on this topic.

ESPN analytics came up with this...

MIA with Tua was BUFF's equal on offense
MIA with Teddy was the equivalent of the Commandos offense
MIA with Sky Boy is equal to INDY on offense

Nuff said. I'll take my whoping 15-points and trade them in for a shot of Fireball next week!

[Aztec10]

Or instead of stagnant lines keep the regular season rules for the playoffs. Buffalo -9 is a gift relative to the real time line throughout the week.

[florabamaboy]

10 Points, Risking 5 units.

Buccaneers +3. I really wanted to go with my Bengals, but losing another key offensive lineman stinks. So, I ended up on Brady as a home playoff dog with an improving offense at home ON THE GRASS against the Cowboys, who lose much of their speed advantage on this slow track. Let's see, the GOAT against a team who hasn't won a road playoff game since when, like Troy Aikman days? I don't think McCarthy is all that great a coach, and I can just see the Bucs opportunistic defense baiting Prescott into another interception or two. What is he doing out there lately? Add in the home field edge, and it will be loud, and I will gladly take the points.