No announcement yet.

2022-23 NFL P.O.W. Playoffs (post conference title round pick here)

  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • 2022-23 NFL P.O.W. Playoffs (post conference title round pick here)

    It was another rough week for our playoff qualifiers, though we have 5 that have gone 2-0 to stand at the top of the standings (see below):

    As compiled by gcotton:
    Group went 15-16 (48%) ATS in the Wildcard Round
    Group went 13-17 (43%) ATS (1 non play) in the Divisional Round
    Group is now 28-33 (46%) ATS overall for the playoffs​

    For those new to the P.O.W. playoff format, instead of everyone shopping around for their lines during the week, we post the available plays and replace the line shopping from the regular season with the most widely available best number for each side of the spread and total. Your points earned during the regular season are your betting units for the playoffs and you can risk 1-5 units. Some have wanted to be able to go all-in (though we took a vote a couple of years ago and it was 10-1 to keep this format). I maintain that if the person leading the contest goes 4-0 in the playoffs and no one can catch them, they've deserved the title. Besides, the main reason for this contest and weekly threads is to share our top plays and reasoning with each other, so the competition is secondary.

    Playoff Qualifier Units Wild Card P.O.W. Units Division P.O.W. Units
    J.herb 13 SF -9.5 (W) 18 SF -3.5 (W) 23
    2hollywood2 12 MIA +11 (W) 17 JAX-KC u53 (W) 22
    phatman15 11 CIN -6.5 (W) 16 SF -3.5 (W) 21
    bimmercando 10 BAL-CIN u43.5 (W) 15 SF -3.5 (W) 20
    JPdawg 10 BAL-CIN o40.5 (W) 15 DAL-SF u46.5 (W) 20
    chamoinla 16 DAL -2.5 (W) 21 DAL +4 (L) 16
    jschanilec 15 CIN -6.5 (W) 20 KC -8.5 (L) 15
    TARB 14 DAL-TB u45.5 (W) 19 NYG +7.5 (L) 14
    Genzo 13 LAC-JAX o46.5 (W) 18 DAL +4 (L) 13
    NinerUteFan 13 SF -9.5 (W) 18 DAL +4 (L) 13
    Archie8 12 NYG +3 (W) 17 BUF -4 (L) 12
    barnstorm 12 BUF -9 (L) 7 DAL-SF u46.5 (W) 12
    Pittsburgh 12 TB +3 (L) 7 SF -3.5 (W) 12
    Blueandgold65 11 SF -9.5 (W) 16 DAL +4 (L) 11
    bullybeater 11 BUF -9 (L) 6 JAX-KC u53 (W) 11
    tospeke 11 BUF -9 (L) 6 JAX +9 (W) 11
    JIMMYJAM4508 11 LAC -1.5 (L) 6 SF -3.5 (W) 11
    Mr Pixter 11 BUF -9 (L) 6 SF -3.5 (W) 11
    mtheller 11 BUF -9 (L) 6 CIN +5.5 (W) 11
    Xavier Rob 10 BUF -9 (L) 5 SF -3.5 (W) 10
    Caseinpoint 10 NYG +3 (W) 15 DAL-SF o45.5 (L) 10
    Deano 10 CIN -6.5 (W) 15 KC -8.5 (L) 10
    Zbrajoni 10 DAL -2.5 (W) 15 DAL +4 (L) 10
    Asteroid M 10 BUF -9 (L) 5 5
    Coachv29 12 BUF -9 (L) 7 CIN-BUF o48 (L) 2
    Aztec10 11 SEA +10 (L) 6 DAL +4 (L) 1
    Seahawk Rick 11 BUF -9 (L) 6 NYG +7.5 (L) 1
    RacingCat 10 BUF -9 (L) 5 BUF -4 (L) Elim
    DaveyShines 10 BUF -9 (L) 5 KC -8.5 (L) Elim
    florabamaboy 10 TB +3 (L) 5 NYG +7.5 (L) Elim
    Mrvolo 10 MIA-BUF u43.5 (L) 5 KC -8.5 (L) Elim
    All bets are 5 units unless noted otherwise

    We're awarding a 1st-place prize of a 2-night stay at a Las Vegas hotel (sorry, you have to get yourself here), plus dinner for 2 with yours truly, plus a VFV shirt and a $100 online gift certificate to goes to whoever has the most units after the Super Bowl.

    RULES ADJUSTMENT: Those following the P.O.W. action closely (tip of the cap to bimmercando) will recall that leader J.herb didn't list how many units he was wagering in the wild-card round. I gave him a 5-unit win as I felt it was in the spirit of the contest (and obviously everyone else is betting the maximum 5 and I believe it was an honest oversight and that he wouldn't have protested if he had lost and I docked him the 5 units). be fair to all, if J.herb wins the title but someone else would have prevailed if he was only awarded 1 unit, I'll declare co-champs and give two first-place prizes. So we'll just see how it plays out from here.

    Here are this week's line...and obviously a big disparity as the Bengals-Chiefs point spread has been all over the place this week and I'm trusting that everyone would have grabbed the best line available on the side they liked if we were playing by regular-season rules:

    49ers +2.5
    Eagles -1.5
    SF-PHI Over 45
    SF-PHI Under 46.5

    Bengals +1.5
    Chiefs +1.5
    CIN-KC Over 47.5
    CIN-KC Under 48

    And, as always, please also include your reasoning for your play (and not just "because the line has moved and I'm taking the best number" or "I don't really believe in this play but just trying to go opposite the leaders to make up ground"), so we keep with the original intent of the P.O.W. threads. Thanks and GLA

  • #2
    2023 POW Playoff 11-points

    Eagles -1.5 (5-points)

    The rookie Purdy has been welcomed into the playoffs with 2 home games, and now finally has to go on the road. He is going from being the artist to open the show when doors open, to being the big name on the top of the ticket. Last week against a weaker Dallas team, he made mistakes that would have costed him the game against most other teams, but Dak made just as many and SF got the win. Sorry Purdy, but your mistakes will cost you a trip to the Super Bowl this week and the Eagles will have your feathers ruffled. Your rookie season is over and it won't even be close. Get off the main stage, the Eagles are playing some tunes now.


    • #3
      Seahawk Rick - I messaged Dave....he said for the next two weeks, you, and you only, can risk any amount of points that you want up to the total amount of points that you have left in an attempt to catch the leaders.


      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        10,000 unemployed comedians, and we get one here on the playoff thread! I'm so glad finally came to his senses! :-)

    • #4
      NFL POW [2points]

      Risking all 2 of my points that I have left, as I've gone 0-2 in the playoff round, so fade if you want to.

      Eagles -1.5

      I'm playing an angle here....Rookie QB's are 0-5 in NFC Championship games, and although he has answered every challenge so far, I believe at some point in this game that Purdy will succumb to the pressure that Philly will put on him. I also think that one of Philly's WR's will have a big game against the secondary of SF. Hurts will use his legs and the rabid Philly crowd will help them advance to the Big Game. Philly by 7.

      GL to all


      • #5
        10 points risking 5
        Bengals + 1 1/2
        Back to where I started after the disappointing low scoring game in SF. I’m jumping back on the Joe Burrows train after he showed his grit in beating a tough Buffalo team on the road in very inclimate weather. I don’t think the injury to Mahomes will have any bearing on this game and he’ll be back in full force for this AFC championship game. Burrows is straight up a better QB than Mahomes and the Bungles have proven themselves to be road warriors, so Arrowhead will be just another stop to the big dance.


        • #6
          POW 11 Pts
          Wager 5
          Philly -1.5
          Sooner or later a rookie will act like a rookie and that will happen once the Eagles defense starts pressuring Purdy. See Daniel Jones last week, he was not a rookie but couldn't take the heat and the Gints got blown out. Niners won't get blown out but beating the Birds at home is not int he cards for San Fran


          • #7
            There was some discussion about moving the submission time up, or is game time still the rule? I wonder if Dave has secretly conjured up some odds on the winner of this contest?


            • #8
              2023 POW Playoff 1-point

              BENGALS +1.5 (1-point that WILL become 2!)

              When Mahomes throws at 3-seconds or more:

              **His completion percentage drops 24%
              **TD to INT ratio drops 3-fold from 6.2 to 2.6
              **Off target throws double from 12% to 24%

              Lou Anarumo, the DC for CINN totally made Mahomes head explode like the Fem-bots in Austin Powers last year in the Championship game when he went with a rush three, drop eight coverage and discovered the above numbers that if Patty has to hang onto the ball longer, he gets worse, and with an ankle that might slow him down, his running numbers will be down to make 3rd down conversions a little lower giving CINN the ball back more often. The Cats aren't afraid of playing in Burrowhead, and a trip to Phoenix to play one more game is in their grasp.

              CINN is 19-1 ATS in last 20-games when not laying 7+ points.


              • bimmercando
                bimmercando commented
                Editing a comment
                The game ending penalty that will not be forgotten.

              • Seahawk Rick
                Seahawk Rick commented
                Editing a comment
                So many plays that could be focused on, but yes, moving the ball up 15-yards is ginormous at that point. CINN had the ball with 2:30 left though and don't get it done.

              • barnstorm
                barnstorm commented
                Editing a comment
                Burrow was under constant pressure. He didn't have much time to go downfield. The Chiefs seemed to get some home cooking from the refs. And that phantom play that was waved off after it was over, and then Eli Apple with the bad holding call after a Bengals sack.

            • #9
              Originally posted by phatman15
              There was some discussion about moving the submission time up, or is game time still the rule? I wonder if Dave has secretly conjured up some odds on the winner of this contest?
              I would like it if everyone would submit their plays well before the 1st game on Sunday, but didn't put any deadline (besides kickoff of the game you're using) as everyone's been pretty good about posting.


              • #10
                11 points, wagering the max of 5.

                CIN + 1.5

                I feel like these games are difficult to predict, so if I have an angle, I'm going to use it. My angle is Mahomes' ankle affects his game. Besides, the Bengals are a good team and could win this even against a healthy Mahomes.


                • #11
                  2023 POW Playoff 5 Points Wager here-point

                  49ers + 2.5

                  I get it, But Purdy went into a hostile enviremont for his 1st road start when his team was playing seattle for 1st place- Purdy didnt seem rattled in Seattle and promptly had his team up 21-3 in the 2nd quarter. The 49ers seem to have weapons everywhere including their placekicker. There is so much talent around Purdy and he is just doing what he needs to do.
                  The Eagles are extremely talented, I question their QB & coach in this spot. They basically own the Giants so I take nothing out of last weeks win. I believe the Niners will run the ball better than they did against Dallas, control some clock and do enough on D, to contain Hurts and Co. I see the Niners rolloing on and another Cincy/SF Superbowl........


                  • Seahawk Rick
                    Seahawk Rick commented
                    Editing a comment
                    From your lips to my offshore accounts ears...

                    Everyone is on Philly. They haven't been Giant killers for the most part, except for beating the Giants! 😁 Good, but not great wins. SF will run and slow down Hurts.

                • #12
                  5 points
                  San Francisco +2.5

                  Great run by SF with a rookie QB.
                  The team played really well in conference games, going 12-2 straight up. They rewarded bettors in this spot as well, with the same 12-2 record ATS.
                  They went undefeated at 6-0 in the second half against teams with a winning record. They rewarded bettors by covering the spread in five of those contests.


                  • #13
                    20 Points

                    CIN/KC OVER 47.5 (Dave's Desert Inn)

                    Going to stick with totals as I try to seize Seahawk Rick's fitty. For some reason the AFC Championship game has featured a bunch of scoring in recent past. The last 4 AFC Champ games and 6 of last 8 would have sailed over this number. The last 5 times these teams matched up they averaged a combined 55.8 pts. Both teams in top 5 of the league in TD conversion rate in the Red Zone. And KC is next to last in Opponent Red Zone TD conversion rate. Mahomes will certainly get all necessary opiates to play this game and his mobility issues may not be as much of a factor given Cincy has not been able to pressure QBs much this year. Hoping for an entertaining shootout.


                    • JPdawg
                      JPdawg commented
                      Editing a comment
                      Sorry, should have mentioned I am risking 5 points.

                    • Seahawk Rick
                      Seahawk Rick commented
                      Editing a comment
                      You win it, I'll pay it!

                      Glad I didn't have a couple of cocktails in me when I posted the amount and said something stupid like a thousand! Lol!

                  • #14
                    2022 NFL P.O.W. 15 points
                    Wagering 5 points

                    Philly -1.5. I'm excited for both games tomorrow. I think the home field advantage will be too much for Brock Purdy. Hurts and the Eagles O will do just enough against the tough 49ers D and Philadelphia rolls on to the Superb Owl wining by 10.


                    • bimmercando
                      bimmercando commented
                      Editing a comment
                      GL with the Beagles for what it's worth.

                      It's been a while since I can recall Philly performing substantially better at home than away,
                      especially when it comes down to winning ATS. The Beagles do not rule in this department.

                      They are far from "the untouchables" that fans like to be entertained with in an NFL season.
                      In a limited quality conference, the Beagles were one of the top mongrels.
                      Even with their winning record and improvements over last season's lame results vs quality teams,
                      they haven't exorcised their ho-hum home field performance records from their system.
                      It's basically 3 free points here for San Francisco on this far from "home" field turf of Philadephia.
                      Last edited by bimmercando; 01-29-2023, 08:13 AM.

                    • bimmercando
                      bimmercando commented
                      Editing a comment
                      Nice Win.

                  • #15
                    11 pts

                    Philly -1.5. Risking 5 pts
                    Hate going against Tuley the Tout but see the Hollywood script ending for Purdy . See Eagles jumping to lead, and when Purdy is in known pass situations he'll show he's Mr Irrelevant. I see a workmanlike 10 pt victory for Fly Eagles Fly