2022-23 NFL P.O.W. Playoffs (post conference title round pick here)

[DaveTuley]

It was another rough week for our playoff qualifiers, though we have 5 that have gone 2-0 to stand at the top of the standings (see below):

As compiled by gcotton:
Group went 15-16 (48%) ATS in the Wildcard Round
Group went 13-17 (43%) ATS (1 non play) in the Divisional Round
Group is now 28-33 (46%) ATS overall for the playoffs

For those new to the P.O.W. playoff format, instead of everyone shopping around for their lines during the week, we post the available plays and replace the line shopping from the regular season with the most widely available best number for each side of the spread and total. Your points earned during the regular season are your betting units for the playoffs and you can risk 1-5 units. Some have wanted to be able to go all-in (though we took a vote a couple of years ago and it was 10-1 to keep this format). I maintain that if the person leading the contest goes 4-0 in the playoffs and no one can catch them, they've deserved the title. Besides, the main reason for this contest and weekly threads is to share our top plays and reasoning with each other, so the competition is secondary.

Playoff Qualifier	Units	Wild Card P.O.W.	Units	Division P.O.W.	Units
J.herb	13	SF -9.5 (W)	18	SF -3.5 (W)	23
2hollywood2	12	MIA +11 (W)	17	JAX-KC u53 (W)	22
phatman15	11	CIN -6.5 (W)	16	SF -3.5 (W)	21
bimmercando	10	BAL-CIN u43.5 (W)	15	SF -3.5 (W)	20
JPdawg	10	BAL-CIN o40.5 (W)	15	DAL-SF u46.5 (W)	20
chamoinla	16	DAL -2.5 (W)	21	DAL +4 (L)	16
jschanilec	15	CIN -6.5 (W)	20	KC -8.5 (L)	15
TARB	14	DAL-TB u45.5 (W)	19	NYG +7.5 (L)	14
Genzo	13	LAC-JAX o46.5 (W)	18	DAL +4 (L)	13
NinerUteFan	13	SF -9.5 (W)	18	DAL +4 (L)	13
Archie8	12	NYG +3 (W)	17	BUF -4 (L)	12
barnstorm	12	BUF -9 (L)	7	DAL-SF u46.5 (W)	12
Pittsburgh	12	TB +3 (L)	7	SF -3.5 (W)	12
Blueandgold65	11	SF -9.5 (W)	16	DAL +4 (L)	11
bullybeater	11	BUF -9 (L)	6	JAX-KC u53 (W)	11
tospeke	11	BUF -9 (L)	6	JAX +9 (W)	11
JIMMYJAM4508	11	LAC -1.5 (L)	6	SF -3.5 (W)	11
Mr Pixter	11	BUF -9 (L)	6	SF -3.5 (W)	11
mtheller	11	BUF -9 (L)	6	CIN +5.5 (W)	11
Xavier Rob	10	BUF -9 (L)	5	SF -3.5 (W)	10
Caseinpoint	10	NYG +3 (W)	15	DAL-SF o45.5 (L)	10
Deano	10	CIN -6.5 (W)	15	KC -8.5 (L)	10
Zbrajoni	10	DAL -2.5 (W)	15	DAL +4 (L)	10
Asteroid M	10	BUF -9 (L)	5		5
Coachv29	12	BUF -9 (L)	7	CIN-BUF o48 (L)	2
Aztec10	11	SEA +10 (L)	6	DAL +4 (L)	1
Seahawk Rick	11	BUF -9 (L)	6	NYG +7.5 (L)	1
RacingCat	10	BUF -9 (L)	5	BUF -4 (L)	Elim
DaveyShines	10	BUF -9 (L)	5	KC -8.5 (L)	Elim
florabamaboy	10	TB +3 (L)	5	NYG +7.5 (L)	Elim
Mrvolo	10	MIA-BUF u43.5 (L)	5	KC -8.5 (L)	Elim
All bets are 5 units unless noted otherwise

We're awarding a 1st-place prize of a 2-night stay at a Las Vegas hotel (sorry, you have to get yourself here), plus dinner for 2 with yours truly, plus a VFV shirt and a $100 online gift certificate to NFL.com goes to whoever has the most units after the Super Bowl.

RULES ADJUSTMENT: Those following the P.O.W. action closely (tip of the cap to bimmercando) will recall that leader J.herb didn't list how many units he was wagering in the wild-card round. I gave him a 5-unit win as I felt it was in the spirit of the contest (and obviously everyone else is betting the maximum 5 and I believe it was an honest oversight and that he wouldn't have protested if he had lost and I docked him the 5 units). Regardless...to be fair to all, if J.herb wins the title but someone else would have prevailed if he was only awarded 1 unit, I'll declare co-champs and give two first-place prizes. So we'll just see how it plays out from here.

Here are this week's line...and obviously a big disparity as the Bengals-Chiefs point spread has been all over the place this week and I'm trusting that everyone would have grabbed the best line available on the side they liked if we were playing by regular-season rules:

49ers +2.5
Eagles -1.5
SF-PHI Over 45
SF-PHI Under 46.5

Bengals +1.5
Chiefs +1.5
CIN-KC Over 47.5
CIN-KC Under 48

And, as always, please also include your reasoning for your play (and not just "because the line has moved and I'm taking the best number" or "I don't really believe in this play but just trying to go opposite the leaders to make up ground"), so we keep with the original intent of the P.O.W. threads. Thanks and GLA

[TARB]

14 points

SF / Eagles un 46.5 for 5 points

These two teams have the best defenses in the NFL. Both teams will try to run the ball and will struggle to score. Rookie QB Purdy has not seen a defense as good as Philadelphia's and I could have layed the points with the Eagles in this contest, but will ride with the under.

[TARB]

One of the five guys with 20+ points will undoubtedly win this contest. Good luck guys!

[mtheller]

2023 POW Playoff 11-points

Eagles -1.5 (5-points)

The rookie Purdy has been welcomed into the playoffs with 2 home games, and now finally has to go on the road. He is going from being the artist to open the show when doors open, to being the big name on the top of the ticket. Last week against a weaker Dallas team, he made mistakes that would have costed him the game against most other teams, but Dak made just as many and SF got the win. Sorry Purdy, but your mistakes will cost you a trip to the Super Bowl this week and the Eagles will have your feathers ruffled. Your rookie season is over and it won't even be close. Get off the main stage, the Eagles are playing some tunes now.

[mtheller]

Seahawk Rick - I messaged Dave....he said for the next two weeks, you, and you only, can risk any amount of points that you want up to the total amount of points that you have left in an attempt to catch the leaders.

[Seahawk Rick]

10,000 unemployed comedians, and we get one here on the playoff thread! I'm so glad finally came to his senses! :-)

[Coachv29]

NFL POW [2points]

Risking all 2 of my points that I have left, as I've gone 0-2 in the playoff round, so fade if you want to.

Eagles -1.5

I'm playing an angle here....Rookie QB's are 0-5 in NFC Championship games, and although he has answered every challenge so far, I believe at some point in this game that Purdy will succumb to the pressure that Philly will put on him. I also think that one of Philly's WR's will have a big game against the secondary of SF. Hurts will use his legs and the rabid Philly crowd will help them advance to the Big Game. Philly by 7.

GL to all

[Caseinpoint]

10 points risking 5
Bengals + 1 1/2
Back to where I started after the disappointing low scoring game in SF. I’m jumping back on the Joe Burrows train after he showed his grit in beating a tough Buffalo team on the road in very inclimate weather. I don’t think the injury to Mahomes will have any bearing on this game and he’ll be back in full force for this AFC championship game. Burrows is straight up a better QB than Mahomes and the Bungles have proven themselves to be road warriors, so Arrowhead will be just another stop to the big dance.

[Mr Pixter]

POW 11 Pts
Wager 5
Philly -1.5
Sooner or later a rookie will act like a rookie and that will happen once the Eagles defense starts pressuring Purdy. See Daniel Jones last week, he was not a rookie but couldn't take the heat and the Gints got blown out. Niners won't get blown out but beating the Birds at home is not int he cards for San Fran

[phatman15]

There was some discussion about moving the submission time up, or is game time still the rule? I wonder if Dave has secretly conjured up some odds on the winner of this contest?

[Seahawk Rick]

2023 POW Playoff 1-point

BENGALS +1.5 (1-point that WILL become 2!)

When Mahomes throws at 3-seconds or more:

**His completion percentage drops 24%
**TD to INT ratio drops 3-fold from 6.2 to 2.6
**Off target throws double from 12% to 24%

Lou Anarumo, the DC for CINN totally made Mahomes head explode like the Fem-bots in Austin Powers last year in the Championship game when he went with a rush three, drop eight coverage and discovered the above numbers that if Patty has to hang onto the ball longer, he gets worse, and with an ankle that might slow him down, his running numbers will be down to make 3rd down conversions a little lower giving CINN the ball back more often. The Cats aren't afraid of playing in Burrowhead, and a trip to Phoenix to play one more game is in their grasp.

CINN is 19-1 ATS in last 20-games when not laying 7+ points.

[bimmercando]

The game ending penalty that will not be forgotten.

[Seahawk Rick]

So many plays that could be focused on, but yes, moving the ball up 15-yards is ginormous at that point. CINN had the ball with 2:30 left though and don't get it done.

[barnstorm]

Burrow was under constant pressure. He didn't have much time to go downfield. The Chiefs seemed to get some home cooking from the refs. And that phantom play that was waved off after it was over, and then Eli Apple with the bad holding call after a Bengals sack.

[DaveTuley]

There was some discussion about moving the submission time up, or is game time still the rule? I wonder if Dave has secretly conjured up some odds on the winner of this contest?

I would like it if everyone would submit their plays well before the 1st game on Sunday, but didn't put any deadline (besides kickoff of the game you're using) as everyone's been pretty good about posting.

[tospeke]

11 points, wagering the max of 5.

CIN + 1.5

I feel like these games are difficult to predict, so if I have an angle, I'm going to use it. My angle is Mahomes' ankle affects his game. Besides, the Bengals are a good team and could win this even against a healthy Mahomes.

[JIMMYJAM4508]

2023 POW Playoff 5 Points Wager here-point

49ers + 2.5

I get it, But Purdy went into a hostile enviremont for his 1st road start when his team was playing seattle for 1st place- Purdy didnt seem rattled in Seattle and promptly had his team up 21-3 in the 2nd quarter. The 49ers seem to have weapons everywhere including their placekicker. There is so much talent around Purdy and he is just doing what he needs to do.
The Eagles are extremely talented, I question their QB & coach in this spot. They basically own the Giants so I take nothing out of last weeks win. I believe the Niners will run the ball better than they did against Dallas, control some clock and do enough on D, to contain Hurts and Co. I see the Niners rolloing on and another Cincy/SF Superbowl........

[Seahawk Rick]

From your lips to my offshore accounts ears...

Everyone is on Philly. They haven't been Giant killers for the most part, except for beating the Giants! 😁 Good, but not great wins. SF will run and slow down Hurts.

[Archie8]

5 points
San Francisco +2.5

Great run by SF with a rookie QB.
The team played really well in conference games, going 12-2 straight up. They rewarded bettors in this spot as well, with the same 12-2 record ATS.
They went undefeated at 6-0 in the second half against teams with a winning record. They rewarded bettors by covering the spread in five of those contests.

[JPdawg]

20 Points

CIN/KC OVER 47.5 (Dave's Desert Inn)

Going to stick with totals as I try to seize Seahawk Rick's fitty. For some reason the AFC Championship game has featured a bunch of scoring in recent past. The last 4 AFC Champ games and 6 of last 8 would have sailed over this number. The last 5 times these teams matched up they averaged a combined 55.8 pts. Both teams in top 5 of the league in TD conversion rate in the Red Zone. And KC is next to last in Opponent Red Zone TD conversion rate. Mahomes will certainly get all necessary opiates to play this game and his mobility issues may not be as much of a factor given Cincy has not been able to pressure QBs much this year. Hoping for an entertaining shootout.
GLTA

[JPdawg]

Sorry, should have mentioned I am risking 5 points.

[Seahawk Rick]

You win it, I'll pay it!

Glad I didn't have a couple of cocktails in me when I posted the amount and said something stupid like a thousand! Lol!