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CFB Bowl Games.........It's As Easy As Just Picking The Winner....

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  • CFB Bowl Games.........It's As Easy As Just Picking The Winner....

    One of the most respected voices to ever type on here posted this theory several years ago, and it still holds true to this day. So since we have so many new people now, I thought I would re-post (briefly) what it is:

    CFB Bowl games (as well as the NFL Playoffs) very, very rarely come down to the point spread. Here is some data to prove my point: Using the past 4 Bowl Seasons (2015-2018), in which we have the current 40 Bowl games, the favorite has won SU, but failed to cover only 16 times in 125 games. In 2015, it happened 5 times; 2016 it happened 8 times; 2017, it happened just 2 times; and this season so far, it has happened 1 time.

    So what does this mean for us, the bettors??? The theory is this: If you like a favorite, you are better off laying the points (usually at -110), and if you think a Dog is going to win, you are better off playing the moneyline, which you will always get better odds then -110.

    I would love to hear what some others feel about this "Just pick the winner" theory. Best of luck the rest of the Bowl Season!

  • #2
    gcotton: so what your saying is the dog covered only 16/125 (12.8%) of the time. The bookies set the line hoping to aim for equal action on either side. This is terribly lopsided. Since the public likes to bet the favourite, then the casinos must have taken a bath and Tuley must have emptied his wallet. I doubt that on both counts.

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    • #3
      No Davey, what gotton is saying is that only 16 times did the favorite win the game outright and not cover the spread. When the dog covered they also won the game outright, except those 16 times. I subscribe to this theory, in both bowls and nfl playoffs. If you like the favorite lay the points, if you like the dog bet the moneyline. Don’t know if I made it any clearer. Good luck

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      • #4
        My bad haydenkeats. I read that wrong. But he says the favourite didn't cover 16 times but doesn't mention how many times they won SU so that we might get a clearer picture. And how many times did the dog win SU? It would be nice to get an ATS and SU breakdown for faves and dogs to complete the analysis.

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