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NFL week18 :LAC@BAL some thoughts.

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  • NFL week18 :LAC@BAL some thoughts.

    LAC@BAL some thoughts.

    The weather, 57 F, and game time,8:15 eastern, won’t be a factor

    These 2 teams played each other WK16 in LAC. -4 with Bal winning by 12

    Now the venue shifts to Bal-2.5.

    That game was big, as with a win, LAC would be now be seeded #1 in the AFC and With a loss Bal woulda been out. Therefore for both teams that game was critical, even though one could perhaps predict a flat spot for LAC as they just beat KC week 15. But they were in a virtual tie for the first seed and needed to keep winning. and as it turns out if they had won out they would be the 1 seed.

    All that was just to point out that Bal didn’t have a motivational edge in WK16 and beat the LAC by 12 in their home park, but 6 was a 70 yard fumble return. Now most feel LAC has no HF advantage but they were Fav -4. So if playing that game in Bal the line would have been -1, (and lost by 15 instead of 12) and today it’s +2.5 , not really reflecting the margin of the Bal win by 12

    So my conclusion is Bet Bal

    However

    LAC was at a disadvantage in WK16 as it was only Lamar Jackson’s 4th? game so they had little film on him and the radical change in Bal offence. Now they have actually played him and have two more game films to analyze . So they should play better defence. A TD better? I dunno.

    Any other thoughts out there( I didn’t see the game)

    PS I Need new glasses final score in WK16 was 22-10 that I read as 22-16,

    So amended write up accordingly

    PPS when checking weather, i mis read Dal for Bal as far as time and weather was concerned

    So it’s Sunday at 1 pm (10 am for LAC.. another reason to give Bal the edge) and 50 f with 12 mph wind. If windy it also gives edge to Bal as they are less dependent on the pass.
    Last edited by Barryt; 12-31-2018, 09:30 PM. Reason: added PPS
    "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
    “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

  • #2
    I’ve since watched a game pass replay and Bal seemed ful credit for their win
    they missed two FG and had a TO on downs inside the 5 in the first half.
    they intercepted Rivers first and last throws and returned a fumble 60-70 yards for a TD but failed on 2 point Conversion.LAC were up against it despite leading 10-6 ar one time.
    im going with Baltimore -2.5 before it gets to 3
    HAPPY NEW YEAR,
    IM IN BC Canada on Mountain time so2 hours to go.
    time to party
    "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
    “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

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    • #3
      I am on Baltimore here and may just ride them to the Superbowl.........

      Much Better Coaching Staff. Philip rivers seems back into his old interception habits and the 1PM starting time wont help them.

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      • #4
        Ok good points Barry--However I'm on Chargers this week- believe the stats Rookie QB vs experienced QB and better record getting points- I'll go with that


        Happy New Year

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        • #5
          My picks for weekend,Seattle+2 1/2,Colts+2,and ML parlay Baltimore and Chicago.Those bets are in.May bet Baltimore-2 1/2.Hope Bears Win and I can take points in their next game,same with Baltimore.Those 2 teams could be in SB.
          Last edited by Mrvolo; 01-03-2019, 08:06 AM.

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          • #6
            Well I was certainly wrong in predicting Baltimore would out play LAC again, but yo u know that goal line non fumble at one end, and Dixon in fact breaking the plane at the other woulda made me look good.
            "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
            “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

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            • #7
              You get more right than wrong Barry--
              best this coming weekend

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