The Limper NBA 2018/19 - 1/22 to 1/28

[WJCJR]

[WJCJR]

[DaveTuley]

Note: I originally posted this in last week's thread, but felt it was better-suited here:

Limper so basically you are a coin-flip capper for the season @ just barely over 50%?

This is an addendum to my note in the P.O.W. thread...your negative comments serve no purpose except to piss off regular visitors (in addition to the people you attack). Why can't you see this? WJCJR is making an honest effort into predicting score/developing power ratings/etc. Instead of a criticism of the results, it would be much more constructive if you had something to contribute. Maybe you could suggest that WJCJR has a certain team or group of teams rated too high or too low...again, anything except for just blantantly negative comments or attacks.

[bullybeater]

WJCJR,do you follow the scores in relation to the totals?

[SportsBettor]

Note: I originally posted this in last week's thread, but felt it was better-suited here:



This is an addendum to my note in the P.O.W. thread...your negative comments serve no purpose except to piss off regular visitors (in addition to the people you attack). Why can't you see this? WJCJR is making an honest effort into predicting score/developing power ratings/etc. Instead of a criticism of the results, it would be much more constructive if you had something to contribute. Maybe you could suggest that WJCJR has a certain team or group of teams rated too high or too low...again, anything except for just blantantly negative comments or attacks.

Sorry if it comes across as negative, but did I state anything incorrect? His current record is 128-119-4, or indeed just barely over 50% so tell me, Dave: What good will it do anyone if they followed him? They wouldn't have even reached the minimum 52.4% breakeven point to compensate for the JUICE and would thus just lose money! Obviously he is doing something wrong if literally flipping a coin 251 times would've almost produced the same damn result.

In short, dont hate the messenger who's just stating the facts!

[mtheller]

He isn't asking anyone to follow him. He is trying to develop a system and posts the results for others to consider when making their picks. No one on this site is selling picks. You and/or others have chased away people's systems before (i.e. the LMM) for almost exactly what you are doing to the Limper.

[WJCJR]

I have explained this earlier in the season, and maybe it should be something I repeat more often

The model’s “picks” are based on the lines current with the post and a team’s margin of victory based on statistical projections, which are in turn based on team and player past performance data and game matchups. To “follow” such “picks” is to make the assumption that nothing changes, and that’s just plain wrong-headedness, because things do change – a lot – especially at this stage of the NBA season, when good teams start resting starters, and bad teams start to tank; factors which greatly impact results; so to merely follow “picks” – mine or anyone else’s - is both lazy and foolish.

The model’s MOV is just a guide – and a pretty decent one – to lead the bettor to making smart wagers, and that means staying on top of day-to-day changes, especially in starting lineups – which the model cannot anticipate. The model is not a prediction machine, and picks based on the projected MOV and the ATS record keeping, are simply the best way I have for publically grading the model’s performance.

GLTA

[WJCJR]

WJCJR,do you follow the scores in relation to the totals?

Over the years I have, from time to time, tried adapting the model in order to project totals - but not with a lot of success.

[WJCJR]

[DaveTuley]

NOTE FROM ADMINISTRATOR: SportsBettor has been Banned for 2 days for "Continuing Personal Attacks After Warning."

SportsBettor can resume posting on Saturday morning. Hopefully he gets with the program instead of being a destructive force.

Note to SportsBettor in regards to post above...you quoted my reply but I'm not sure you read it or you would understand why your comments are not constructive. Yes, you stated facts, but also in a hostile manner. And WJCJR openly posts The Limper's record so it's not like you're busting him or anything. And as others have stated, no one is telling you to follow him (or anyone else) so the combative attitude is uncalled for. I'm sure you're not happy with the 2-day Ban, but hopefully you can step back and take a look at how your behavior has rubbed everyone the wrong way. I saw your post in the daily picks thread and then your frustration that no one was replying...well, that should tell you how fed up everyone has been over your posts here. I probably should have done a lifetime ban, but I believe in second chances and think you could contribute around here...I just wish you would make an attempt instead of always starting with a negative post about what others are doing/not doing.

[WJCJR]

[WJCJR]

[WJCJR]

[WJCJR]

[WJCJR]