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NFL P.O.W. (Play of Week) Contest: qualifiers make Super Bowl picks here

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  • NFL P.O.W. (Play of Week) Contest: qualifiers make Super Bowl picks here

    Here's the updated P.O.W. standings heading into the Super Bowl. 7 players are still mathematically alive for the P.O.W. title and the $100 NFL.com gift card, but we'd still like to get the top pick from all our top handicappers from the season.

    Two changes for this round:
    1) Deadline for selections is 3 p.m. ET/noon PT Sunday so we can have everyone's input several hours before the game in case anyone wants to make late wagers.
    2) For competitive reasons, if anyone wants to send me their selection (and reasons) privately, they may do so by 3 p.m. ET/noon PT and I'll then post those plays at that time. Note: if I everyone's selections are either posted in this thread or I receive them all beforehand, I'll go ahead and post the rest of them early (I'd love to have them all posted by Friday or Saturday if possible). This applies for the leader who might want to keep his selection private so no one can just take the opposite side in an attempt to pass them...but also for those trying to catch the leader and not wanting him to just copy their selection to block them out (however, with multiple people still within striking distance and the atmosphere of "fair play" around here, I'd hope that everyone would be more intent on just posting their best bet on the Super Bowl and letting the chips fall where they may

    PHATMAN15 12 5 0 12+4=16+5=21+5=26

    MTHELLER 10 7 0 10+5=15+5=20+5=25

    EAST COAST 14 3 0 14+5=19-5=14+5=19

    MR.VOLO 13 4 0 13+5=18-5=13+5=18

    RACINGCAT 13 4 0 13+5=18-5=13+5=18

    MR. PIXTER 11 5 1 11.5+5=16.5+5=21.5-5=16.5

    TEXAN 73 11 6 0 11+5=16-5=11+5=16

    ==========ELIMINATED==========

    CAP32 10 6 0 10-5=5+5=10+5=15

    JUSTJULIE123 10 6 0 10

    FLORABAMABOY 14 3 0 14+5=19-5=14-5=9

    JDMOOSE1950 11 6 0 11+5=16-5=11-5=6

    2HOLLYWOOD 11 6 0 11-5=6=5=11-5=6

    FREEJACK 10 6 1 10.5+5=15.5-5=10.5-5=5.5

    BLUEANDGOLD65 10 6 0 10+5=15-5=10-5=5

    COACHV29 10 6 1 10.5-5=5.5-5=0.5

    DAVEY SHINES 10 6 1 10.5-5=5.5-5=0.5

  • #2
    Here are the lines for the Super Bowl with the ones most widely available...again, please post or PRIVATE MESSAGE me by 3 p.m. ET/noon PT Sunday or as soon as possible...GLA:

    Patriots -2.5
    Rams +3
    Over 56.5
    Under 57.5

    Comment


    • #3
      First,thank you Dave for running this contest and maybe because I had a shot I enjoyed this years the most.I am 15-5 on picks and bet every one.Right now I am in 4 th place and really feel no chance one of top 3 not having my side I am posting now.
      5 Units Rams +3
      I agree with all the people that say two teams are even.I hope the Rams 2 running Backs can control the ball and keep TB off the field.When he has it Suh and Dalton
      can put pressure on him.Another factor Flores of NE is putting his Coaching staff together unofficially for the Dolphins.This could be a distraction.All of the above and
      i get 3.
      GLTA and any leader on the Rams I will wait another year to win it all.Also ML Rams and over parlay.Agree with Dave on over,commercial time outs long and time to adjust,etc.
      Last edited by Mrvolo; 01-31-2019, 08:49 AM.

      Comment


      • #4
        I'm going UNDER 57 1/2 for the game 5 units. Being back east I will root for the Pat's as long as their not playing the Giants.
        Anyone have any interesting props, I took Under 28 first half and while the QB is usually an MVP winner I took a flyer at 18-1 on Aaron Donald in case the Rams win I think it will be because of the Defense.
        I do have a -135 money line play on the Pat's on the night it first came out and I have a plus 3 at Wm Hill in Rhode Island book for a little middle. I laid the juice on NO 4 consecutive scores Good Luck everyone and to Dave, Cotton, Seahawk Rick and anyone else for running the things you do on this site and to Mr Volo for all the e-mails, it's been a great year Ands thanks TARB for posting your college numbers & plays

        Comment


        • #5
          Pats - Rams Over 56.5
          Time to let it rip for both team's offense to hit the 30+ mark and see a game in the mid 60's. QB's will take center stage and ring up some points in what should be a high scoring game as long as the Rams don't get the yips for being on center stage but their win in New Orleans, though severely jaded, showed they will show up.

          Comment


          • #6
            What a great contest! After a pretty good year in the regular season my picks went south. I do think that either team could win this game and cover. I think its a back and forth affair, and once the scoring starts it won't stop. Plus, it's just more fun to root for the over anyway. Over 56.5.

            Comment


            • #7
              In order for me to win, I need to hit my bet with 1 unit and Phatman to lose his, no other way around it. A loss by both of us, would guarantee me a tie for first........but who wins or goes down like that. This is a 5-Unit pick and it is NE -2-1/2.

              Death and taxes are certainties, but giving Saban or Belichick extra time to prepare for a team is a close 2nd. Can Belichick tell Saban to hold his beer and match a loss on the grandest stage? Not this year!! It has been a little over a year since NE opened as a 6-1/2 point favorite against Philly and Philly came out swinging in that game. McDaniels was supposed to be the coach for Colts this year, but he left something on the field last year and came back. Belichick and McDaniels will have this team ready to play, and most importantly, ready to win. Nothing against the Rams, but Goff is not ready to win, give the Rams another year or two, but not this year. Patriots strike early and often and win this game by 10.

              5-Units - NE -2-1/2

              Congrats to everyone that played this year, and thanks to Dave and GCotton and all that make this one of the best threads on VFV. Phatman, it is your stage now!

              Comment


              • #8
                I am going with the Pats to win by at least 3. Sam Darnold will be matched up against the pats strongest part of their off line, the interior (Center and guard). The Saints showed Bellichek all he needed. James White is going to have a field day with Littleton. The thing about the pats is they are not shy, they will continue to hit the same button over and over and over until you stop it. The pats D will do enough and will get the best of Geoff at times. Geoff will try to push down field and turn it over. The two headed dragon of White and Michel will be the difference maker. Pats win 27-24

                Comment


                • #9
                  N.F.L. POW (16.0)

                  NE/LA Under 57.5 (5 Units)

                  THANK YOU DAVE AND COTTON FOR THIS THREAD. APPRECIATE ALL YOU BOTH HAVE DONE.

                  Have little chance to win, so might as well pick. (Wouldn't it be interesting if we could bet as many points as we earned?)

                  I am going under the total. 2 weeks to prepare and study is a long time. I know Belichick will leave no stone unturned, but the wild card in this game is Wade Phillips.
                  He is familiar with Brady. He knows the formula for slowing down Brady and his offense. Pressure up the middle and stop the run. He has the horses to do it with Aaron Donald and company.
                  The Pats will attempt to make the Rams walk the ball down the field, not giving up the big play. I see this as a 27-24 game or less going either way. Good Luck to All. Congrats to the winner.
                  Hope to participate again next year.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Rams +3 (5 units)

                    Just going to post my play here, while mathematically alive, multiple things have to go my way to finish on top. Hard to argue with the Patriots long term postseason success, but I just feel the Rams roster is better overall on both sides of the ball. Also, this just seems like a value play to me. For the majority of the season, the Super Bowl line was a pick 'em or NFC -1. For that matter, going into conference championship game weekend, the look ahead lines had the NFC team as a pick or -1. Both road teams win and both games go to OT and now the AFC team is favored by 3. Why?

                    This strikes me as an overreaction. The Patriots struggled away from home this year. Even including the AFC Championship game win, the Patriots still have a losing record away from Foxboro this season. I trust Wade Phillips to come up with a solid defensive game plan, I don't expect the Patriots to be able to just go up and down the field at will. Kudos to the Patriots for returning to the Super Bowl for the 3rd straight year, but I predict the Rams win outright. I think I am getting the better team so the the +3 is just an added bonus.

                    Good luck to all, thanks to everyone for their efforts on this contest all season, it is enjoyable to see the selections of others and their logic behind their selections.

                    Comment


                    • mtheller
                      mtheller commented
                      Editing a comment
                      Mr.V, don't count your chickens before they hatch. Phatman's pick is yet to be seen, and not to burst your bubble, but if Rams +3 hits with the under, eastcoast will have 24 points.

                      **and I am hoping your wife has to make you another shrink appointment for going against the Pats
                      Last edited by mtheller; 02-01-2019, 05:24 AM.

                    • Mrvolo
                      Mrvolo commented
                      Editing a comment
                      I know all you said and what I meant was Racing Cat and I will be tied with 23 and by cashing means the $ won from Books.Will be happy to lose on a Under to East Coast as he is a Student of Volo’s dog betting NFL.Also my shrink likes taking $ and points.Exciting game and love this contest,GL to you if NE covers.Enjoy the game and any parties anybody go to.

                    • mtheller
                      mtheller commented
                      Editing a comment
                      Mr.V, will you be at the Holy Bull tomorrow? I am flirting with the idea of going down for a bit.

                  • #11
                    @Does a bird S—t.Going today with my wife and another couple for lunch in 10 Palms and will be in Poker room Saturday.I go usually Friday and Saturday.My e mail is
                    mrvolo@bellsouth.net.Email me and will give you my cell phone.Have not mastered PM on here yet.Would like to meet you and we can try to fix a race.

                    Comment


                    • #12
                      Originally posted by mtheller View Post
                      In order for me to win, I need to hit my bet with 1 unit and Phatman to lose his, no other way around it. A loss by both of us, would guarantee me a tie for first........but who wins or goes down like that. This is a 5-Unit pick and it is NE -2-1/2.

                      Death and taxes are certainties, but giving Saban or Belichick extra time to prepare for a team is a close 2nd. Can Belichick tell Saban to hold his beer and match a loss on the grandest stage? Not this year!! It has been a little over a year since NE opened as a 6-1/2 point favorite against Philly and Philly came out swinging in that game. McDaniels was supposed to be the coach for Colts this year, but he left something on the field last year and came back. Belichick and McDaniels will have this team ready to play, and most importantly, ready to win. Nothing against the Rams, but Goff is not ready to win, give the Rams another year or two, but not this year. Patriots strike early and often and win this game by 10.

                      5-Units - NE -2-1/2

                      Congrats to everyone that played this year, and thanks to Dave and GCotton and all that make this one of the best threads on VFV. Phatman, it is your stage now!
                      How would a loss by you guarantee you a tie for 1st when you trail Phatman by 1 point? Also the people with 18 and 19 points would overtake both of you if both of yall lose and they win. Either way, dont see how you think you can tie for 1st at all with you not even being the leader ATM.

                      Comment


                      • Buckeyefan80
                        Buckeyefan80 commented
                        Editing a comment
                        He was stating if he played his pick for 1 unit and phatman played for 5 and they both lose and east coast wins then he would tie east coast with 24 points.

                    • #13
                      I am still trying to figure out the whole keeping a pick private if you want thing...

                      I look at it as whomever gets a pick in as soon as lines are posted gets first dibs on who they want, making it so others chasing the leaders can have a shot to go another direction in case the leaders lose, they can still have a shot to win.

                      In Phatman's case, I don't know as of this writing IF he has already given Dave his pick in private, and when that message was sent to Dave. I also don't know if he made a pick before or after Mtheller posted his pick. I think anyone in the lead in this thing wouldn't pick the same thing as his nearest competitor just to guarantee themself a win, if that pick wins. If I was in Phatmans position, I would have tried to pick as soon as I could have, and not worried about anyone behind me, as if my pick didn't win, I didn't deserve to win in the first place.

                      I guess if his pick is private, I'd like to know when it was sent to Dave, just to see what picks were already on the board at the time of his pick, IFF it's a private pick. Waiting this long to post publicly doesn't seem plausible, but who knows.

                      Not picking on you Phatman, just trying to dissect the reason for letting people pick in private, when that doesn't happen over the course of the contest.

                      I'm sure the big brains on this thread will have good rebuttals, and state some wonderful reasons to have the ability to pick in private the final week....ORRRRR they are just busy coming up with the perfect guacamole dip recipe for Sunday, and don't give a crap!!!! LMEAO!
                      Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 02-02-2019, 07:29 AM.

                      Comment


                      • Seahawk Rick
                        Seahawk Rick commented
                        Editing a comment
                        Volo...I agree depending on Phatmans pick, along with Mthellers that if they lose, others have a shot to win. There are only four betting options, so makes it even tougher to not have a few people on the same wager.

                        Bottom line is that I'd like to see as many people as possible have a shot to win it in the final game, and have it all public so you have a chance to get your pick in early, or can go a different direction than the leaders if they pick before you do. Maybe adding halftime spreads gives more options to keep as many people from having the same bet.

                        Taking unit limits off would weed out more players too IMHO for final SB pick where leaders would have an easier way to not be on same pick as a lot more people would be out of contention by 'potting it' and losing, or just not having nearly enough points to catch a leader in the SB. More betting strategy comes into play too, and not just an auto-5-point pick each week..

                        It's Commissioner Dave's toy store, so whatever he wants to do, we will all have to abide by....Except for me, as I haven't been in the playoffs in years! Lol.

                        I hear the NFL Competition Commitee will be looking at the replay rule along with the POW playoff rules!
                        Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 02-02-2019, 10:42 AM.

                      • Seahawk Rick
                        Seahawk Rick commented
                        Editing a comment
                        Davey...Like I said, if another person(s) very close to me in the standings got their picks in before me (if I was leading), I'd pick opposite of them so I made it more interesting and didn't make a pick that protected me if I won.

                        Mayyyyyyyybe one idea is to let/make the leader going into SB week pick first, and have a deadline on Friday noon to do it before anyone else can pick giving them a reward for being in the lead. Everyone else can go a different direction then to make it more interesting...Just a thought.
                        Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 02-02-2019, 08:14 AM.

                      • mtheller
                        mtheller commented
                        Editing a comment
                        I agree that the picks should not have the option of being sent in privately, as we do not have thousands of dollars on the line. But I do disagree that someone should pick something else, just because someone is already on one particular side. The intent of my picks have always been to play the best pick. Even if phatman had posted before and I felt he had the best number available, should I talk myself out of that pick in order to win the contest, even if I feel that is the best side to be on? I know for certain I wouldn't jump on the Rams +3. Maybe I would analyze the over/under more and use one of those numbers.

                    • #14
                      I like the idea of maybe allow 10 units on Conference finals and 15 units on SB.All in all a fun contest and waiting for Mr. P

                      Comment


                      • #15
                        PATRIOTS/RAMS Under 57 1/2

                        I want to echo thanking Dave and G-Cotton for putting this contest together, and for all the good input over the course of the season. It is fun to see all the dialogue, as there is some science in making this last play of the contest. I actually considered passing on making a pick this week, and hope that the Pats lose, since only MTHELLER could catch me. But, I think the Pats win, so that kinda shoots a hole in that theory. Plus, in the spirit of the contest, we should all make a play, and see how it stacks up. Truth be told, I don't like the game in terms of a wagering interest, as I could make a case for either team and both sides of the total. Having said that, I think both teams would like to get a running game established and will stay committed to that task. I think there will be a bunch of field goals, which could take points off the board, I might even need some red zone turnovers to keep it under. It also seems like the vast majority of people are on the over, yet the line opened at 58 or 58 1/2, and it currently sits at 56 1/2 in most places. Odd to me that the betting public loves overs, yet the line actually comes down. I love under's (at least you are winning for some of the game). Gimme the under, and hoping I am still alive starting the 4th Qtr.

                        In the meantime, I will look for some props to play and a good recipe for nachos!! Enjoy the day,, and good luck!!

                        Comment


                        • phatman15
                          phatman15 commented
                          Editing a comment
                          Oops,, the play is for 5 units,,, go big,, or go home,,,

                        • mtheller
                          mtheller commented
                          Editing a comment
                          It also benefits you to make a pick. If you don’t, I would only need to win one bet to get crown. With you making a pick, I now have to hit a 2-team parlay in order to win.
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