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NCAAF Week 3

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  • NCAAF Week 3

    College Record 5-0

    This week I couldn't find any games that I really liked. That said, I'm taking Rutgers +3 over Kansas. Sitkowski is suppose to play, but I don't know if that is a good thing as he will probably be shell shocked and a little paranoid. This is not so much a bet on Rutgers, but since I'm getting 3, it is a bet against the worst Power 5 team, Kansas. I had to search for the 3 (William Hill) as there aren't too many out there now at -110. Maybe more will show up, but I no good with predicting line changes.

  • #2
    I'm against you on this play. I bet KANSAS -2.5 -110.

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    • #3
      My top play is OHIO +6.5 points. I made this game to be a pick-em, and I really like OHIO this week, just like I loved KANSAS last week at CMU.

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      • gcotton
        gcotton commented
        Editing a comment
        Good chance this game gets cancelled. Games are already being changed due to this impending storm.

    • #4
      When we are on opposite sides, I always take a deep breath. No, I'm not going to second guess myself. I'll just look back to Week 1 when Nicholls State beat 'em.

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      • #5
        TDH & TARB. I see a lot of value in 3 games. Duke +6...the models I use have Duke at -10 for this game. Indiana -14, model says Indiana -29. Troy +11.5...,model has them at -4.

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        • HugeFiasco
          HugeFiasco commented
          Editing a comment
          Be careful about Duke. QB is hurt and unclear whether he will play.

        • Pittsburgh
          Pittsburgh commented
          Editing a comment
          HugeFiasco thanks for the info. I haven't placed my bets yet. I usually place them on Saturday mornings. Certainly if Duke's QB is out, I will remove that play.

      • #6
        Since my 2-unit bet on OHIO +6.5 was cancelled due to the game site change to Nashville (Vanderbilt), I put in a 1-unit bet on OHIO +3.5, after the game was reopened for betting.

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        • #7
          Originally posted by ThisDogHunts View Post
          When we are on opposite sides, I always take a deep breath. No, I'm not going to second guess myself. I'll just look back to Week 1 when Nicholls State beat 'em.
          Great call TARB. My perfect record is now shattered: Updated College Results 5-1

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          • #8
            Looks like my 3 picks did well. I took Ohio just out of respect for this board but laid off Duke. I’ll post to Tarbs and TDH board next week with the models picks. If you guys remember garlic milkshakes this is pretty much the same picks but different formula

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            • #9
              Originally posted by Pittsburgh View Post
              TDH & TARB. I see a lot of value in 3 games. Duke +6...the models I use have Duke at -10 for this game. Indiana -14, model says Indiana -29. Troy +11.5...,model has them at -4.
              That's a great model you have all 3 not only won but hit your marin of victory spot on

              pls share next week
              TX barryt
              "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
              “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

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              • #10
                Great job Pittsburgh!!

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                • #11
                  Just to be transparent. The model ranks games from 1 to 5 tiers. The 5 tier are the best value bets. All three of the plays above were 5 tier, but I'm almost positive it doesn't take into account for major injuries, hence why I didn't play the Duke game because their QB was out, but in the end that didn't matter. I played a few 4 tier ones and hit as well. We all know nothing is full proof when it comes to betting so lets not be upset if it doesn't work out in the long run. I was a little skeptical at first. The model did not fair very well the first week in college this year. I played a little the second and third weeks with success.

                  Last night it had the Cowboys (-3) as a 4 tier play and they covered. There were no 5 tier plays in the NFL that I have seen the last two weeks. Most are 1-3 tiers. My guess is that Vegas can handicap the NFL better than college. Not sure what to expect this week in NCAA. My guess is that the more into the season we get, the better Vegas gets with being able to handicap NCAA games as well. If this is the case, the 4 and 5 tier plays may be few and far between from here on out.
                  Last edited by Pittsburgh; 09-18-2018, 02:39 PM.

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                  • #12
                    Pittsburgh, please cite the tiers when posting your plays. If you agree with me on games, maybe I will up the plays to 1.5 or 2 units instead of my usual 1 unit. Thanks.

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                    • #13
                      No problem Tarb

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                      • #14
                        Nice selections Pitt.....thx for the info...Dukes coach is supposed to be the best teacher of QBs in college but when the line moved moved from plus 6 to plus 2 I got a bit nervous

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