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WEEK 2 - NFL Survivor Pool Conversation

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  • WEEK 2 - NFL Survivor Pool Conversation

    Well Mrs. Lincoln, other than that, how was the play?

    Boom goes the dynamite!


    I think most of us survived with some picks, but most of us got bloodied in Week 1 of the survivor wars. I for one got whacked on DET, who really looked like they want the vote for worst team in the league…They were like the 5th member of a Star Trek landing crew party, it wasn’t going to end well for them. BUFF, you have competition for the Kings of Suck!

    NO took some of you out. Biggest favorite on the board with BALT a close 2nd. They made Fitzpatrick look like Aaron Rodgers! Aaron Rodgers looked like Aaron Rodgers with his miracle comeback vs Da Bears. How are all you GB pickers feeling? Give some money to charity (Great Stripper Name) as you probably were burning the cash when they were down so far going into the 4th quarter. That loss would have cut all the pools more than 50% coupled with the other upsets! Still a bloodbath at the mid-40% range in the Pit of Misery weekend. PITT had a chance to win…CLEVE had a chance to win…NOBODY WON! Which in survivor land is a LOSS! If you got through without losing a team, congratulations!

    I got through with 4-out-of 5 with my picks on BALT twice, LAR & MINN. No stress for most of them, which is unusual, even the DET game was stress free because they were out of it so early, I didn’t effing care! I had BALT in my ‘if I only had one pick’ fantasy pool…My girl Elizabeth Hurley is also in the fantasy, but I digress…

    MINN won, but SF played well enough to win, and will become a good team as the season moves along, and the G-Man doesn’t kill himself with picks…

    Side note…In the ginormous pool I’m in where you can have up to 20-entries, there were players that had 5, and even 10 of their picks on NO. There were a few guys that had 10-picks and put them either on NO or DET! OK, doubling up when you have a lot of picks like that is gonna happen, but doing what some of these guys did was shear madness! The flip side was at least one of the 10-entry people had all their picks on BALT! Genius! Unless they lose…LOL!

    OK Boys…Here’s some crap to chew on to get the conversation started for Week 2. Let the over-reaction begin, where teams that looked like hamster diarrhea, will look better in Week 2, and some teams that looked like SB contenders, might fall off their perches…


    TEAMS WORTH LOOKING AT…

    LAC @ BUFF…Yeah, LAC lost at their home that isn’t home, but don’t count out these guys as they travel east and get a lot of wins over the years, unless I pick them, then they lose gut-wrenching games that make me say I’ll never pick them again…And then I do! Josh Allen gets his chance in the barrel, that Nathan Peterman barfed all over. I don’t like taking roadies, but will ponder it.

    ARI @ LAR…Yep, it’s a division game, and we’ve seen what can happen in division games already. I didn’t see the ARI/WASH game, but they looked bad in the highlights! Lowlights? Whatever…LAR on paper has way more talent, and should be a tough out at home, but see if there are other picks out there if you can. Tough to see them losing with that defense, and an offense that will get up to speed after knocking off the rust in OAKtown. Seems too easy, right? Awe hell, take them!

    CLEVE @ NO…Yeah, CLEVE was almost the giant killer, BUT, in BROWNIE world, a tie IS a win! Emotional game for them, where they probably got ‘some’ confidence they can play well, but I don’t think their offense is gonna make NO’s D look like Swiss cheese like TB did. It’s one of the most popular picks on the board, and for good reason. I like NO bouncing back and figuring out some of the defensive stuff out and get a W.

    KC @ PITT…I didn’t see the PITT game, but I know there were a good number of turnovers by them…KC is going on the road for the 2nd week in-a-row, which is never easy for any team, which is reflected in the spread I feel. I don’t have a feel for it right now. Mahomes did his job, and will have confidence going into PITT…PITT will clean up their 1st week messes and it should be a good game one would think.

    INDY @ WASH…I didn’t see how WASH looked, but I’ve always liked Alex Smith as a QB…Not a glamor guy, but he gets it done. I need to watch their game along with the INDY game to see how they looked. I might put WASH on my pick list after taking a look.

    DET @ SF…I’m not sure why the line is so low. I think SF played well at MINN for the most part with a lot of great pass plays by Jimmy the Great…He threw some bad balls too, but fixable. I don’t know how DET fixes that defense in a week. I like SF here, and they’ll be on the short list.


    DANGEROUS BUT A MAYBE…

    CAR @ ATL…Olsen going out for CAR is big…CAM is still a force, but it’s like Brady losing Gronk, it probably takes a TD off the board with him not playing. ATL had a ton of chances to beat PHILLY on the road, and IFFFFF they can clean up the redzone stuff, they have a pretty good shot at taking down their division rivals. DIVISION rivals, so beware.

    HOU @ TENN…Gotta see what happens with Mariota and his injury news. IFFF he can’t play, I like HOU, who didn’t look good vs. NE, but still kept it close. I think Watson needed a game to get back in rhythm and will find his way at TENN. Not sure if the hurricane plays into this at all, but keep an eye on if it messed up TENN’s preparations or not.

    OAK @ DEN…Division game for one, but some of you don’t care about that, which brings us to this game where DEN looked good vs. my Seachickens, but my Seachickens looked horrible, and still only lost by 3. DEN D is good, maybe not LAR good, but OAK will have it tough on the road there. DEN O-line kept Keenum clean in the pocket, if they do that, they can maybe sneak a win. Chucky will probably lock a chunk of his team in a cage all week after the 2nd half of the Lambs game…They spit the bit bad. 1st half Raiders, decent, 2nd half Raiders, barf. Me no wanna be onna division game when I have options.


    LOOK ELSEWHERE UNLESS YOU HAVE A GUT FEEL…Or take bong hits daily.

    BALT @ CINN…Unless Peterman is traded to CINN this week, and becomes the starter over Dalton, stay away of this division grinder.

    MINN @ GB…IFFF MINN gets a 17-point lead, they aren’t giving it back! Should be a good one, sit back and enjoy.

    MIA @ NYJ…The Darnold hype machine will be in high gear this week. I don’t know how MIA looked in their marathon game with TENN, but NYJ looked like kings for a day at DET.. DARNOLD looks the part, and will have the home team ready to fish. Division game, but maybe playable if you don’t shy away from them.

    PHILLY @ TB…TB will have a tougher D this week to go against than in Voo-Dooville…TB will want to knock the champs off, and will have the spark to try to make it happen.

    NE @ JAX…No way, Jose…JAX has new helmets, and that’s enough for them to play better this season! They took NE to the mat in the playoffs last year, let’s see how this one plays out. I think it will be a good game.

    NYG @ DAL…Flip a coin…No idea.

    SEA @ CHI…The way SEA played at DEN, they should have lost by 20, but they didn’t. Little Russell was not on his game, and the CHI defense isn’t any sort of break from the DEN D. 2nd week in-a-row on the road in a MNF game. SEA lost their main WR, but will clean up some of their mess I’m sure. CHI played great for 3-quarters at GB…We’ll see if they can play 4-quarters this week. I won’t blame anyone for going on CHI…I will just put a survivor curse on you that will haunt you the rest of your days… 😉


    OK…Get some banter going…Any injury news…Trends…Dreams you have about a game, or ‘Charity!’ Anything helps, as we all can’t read everything about every team. Lets’ right our collective ships, and come out clean this week!

    Adam's pool has a Thursday deadline this week! Put picks in your pools as place-holders! Eat your vegetables!
    Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 09-10-2018, 10:00 PM.

  • #2
    God I love reading your breakdowns each week! I gotta disagree with Pitt as a team worth looking at, however. KC is, IMHO, the real deal and I could see them pulling the upset in Steel City this week. Wash could be a nice below the radar pick. Colts, despite having Luck back, just aren't that good....And with the NFC East wide open, I think Washington is motivated...

    Comment


    • Seahawk Rick
      Seahawk Rick commented
      Editing a comment
      Welcome rao80!

      I agree on your PITT/KC take as being more of a caution flag on it. Vegas set that line at 5 which the average guy might think is high but they set it for a reason. I will stay away, but I have a feeling PITT will clean up their mistakes and KC on the road again is always tough but KC put up a ton of points on the bolts. I didn't see either of them play so hard to make a call. Other options are available.

  • #3
    Here are my takes on the games FWIW. Started the weekend with 7 entries across 3 pools. Used Balt once in each, New Orleans once in two of them and GB once in two of them. Down to 5, but rebuying 3 spots so will be up to 8.

    Thursday's Game - Balt @ Cincy - Won't touch this one. I always say take the better team on a short week, but there is not a clear cut better team here. Both beat up on sub par teams this weekend.

    Sunday 1pms -

    Panthers @ Falcons - Division game with lots of meaning. Olson is out, but it is still a coin flip. Was shocked to see this line at 5-1/2. Guess ATL has the mini-bye.

    Chargers @ Bills - Bills suck and Chargers are coming cross country. I like the Chargers, but hate taking a team that is essentially playing at 10am.

    Vikings @ Packers - After a come from behind victory, I think the Packers made it perfectly clear that I can not pick for or against them this season.

    Texans @ Titans - I like the Texans here and it does not matter Mariotta's status. Just hate taking a road team if I can avoid it.

    Browns @ Saints - Another eliminator trap game. Did you know that every season since 2014, the Saints have started 0-2? I have to imagine that whoever did not take the Saints last week, had a big circle on them this week. At 8-1/2 point favorites, they will be highly picked, enough for me to avoid them.

    Fins @ Jets - Neither team convinced me this weekend. Both looked good, but who expected either of them to win.

    Chiefs @ Steelers - Another game I was shocked to see the line at 5-1/2. Thought Mahomes looked good and Big Ben was horrible. I am staying away.

    Eagles @ Bucs - Eagles on the mini-bye. Does FitzMagic or FitzTragic show up? With a gun to my head, I take the Eagles.

    Colts @ Redskins - Definitely leaning towards the Skins here. Like RAO said, NFC East is wide open and I think the Skins are going to Capitalize on it. Luck needs more work to get adjusted back.


    Sunday 4pms -

    Cards @ Rams - The Rams are good, the Cards are not. But the Rams will be the biggest spread on the board, which induces a lot of eliminator picks. The only problem I see with not taking the Rams this week, is their schedule is not very inviting to use them the rest of the year. Would hate to leave an A team on the table.

    Lions @ 49ers - I thought the 49ers would have a shot to win in Minnesota, maybe I was just too drunk on the Jimmy G Juice. But now they get to return home and play the Lions on a short week with travel.

    Raiders @ Broncos - Didn't get to see either of these teams play, the edge would go to Denver for me based on home field.

    Pats @ Jags - Bortles is bortling.......again.....or maybe he doesn't. Either way, tough spot to pick either team as both have more potential value.

    Sunday Night -

    Giants @ Cowboys - Flip a coin, last possession wins this game.

    Monday Night -

    Unless an NFL team is playing an FCS team, I do not want any part of picking the winner. Any given Sunday, or Monday Night is my rule.

    Comment


    • Seahawk Rick
      Seahawk Rick commented
      Editing a comment
      Good stuff Mtheller...I agree with most of it.

      LAC has done well in the east coast 10am games over the last decade as they became a jinx team for me...I did get a winning pick out of them last year. BUFF is not good and Bolts have the offense to take them down IMHO.

      LAR might be a play even with division and popularity concerns.

      HOU on road for 2nd week in a row...Will feel better about it if Mariota doesn't play.

      There are some good options this week...Might have to break a rule or two.

      SF is my main lean right now.

  • #4
    Had 2 picks in 3 pools and 1 in the big Now down to 1 in all after a Baltimore-Detroit split.Guess I need to be right for 16 more weeks.
    Rest up and will be back Wednesday.

    Comment


    • Seahawk Rick
      Seahawk Rick commented
      Editing a comment
      It was either last year or year before where 3 guys split Adam's pool...Each if them did it with a single entry!

      Make it happen!

  • #5
    CAR lost an O-lineman/rt tackle along with Olsen.

    I think no matter how CAR prepares for the game, they will be distracted by the hurricane and taking care of their families. They might stay...They might head to ATL early as if now....

    Of possible teams to take, I think ATL should be on your list to consider and follow what they do this week and how big a hit N Carolina takes. Might not affect them a ton, but weather is a fickle thing..
    Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 09-11-2018, 01:27 PM.

    Comment


    • #6
      I would say a play against Buffalo any week this season will be safe, but this weeks match-up is tricky. You have the old, "West coast team playing in the 1pm window" trend. Chargers didn't really look that good this week against KC. But my lock this week would be the Saints at home against the Clowns. NO got an eye opener last week, and I'm sure Payton will have his boys ready to play. CLV always plays PIT tough, especially at the Mistake By The Lake.

      FWIW, I heard a crazy stat on VSIN yesterday morning about Sean Payton's record in Week 1. It is mind-boggling. He is now 5-8 SU in Week 1 games as HC of the Saints, and an even worse 1-7 SU the last 8 years!!

      Comment


      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        Take you homer hat off and let me know your thoughts on ATL this week...If you say ATL will win by 40, I'm banning you from the thread!!!! LMEAO

      • gcotton
        gcotton commented
        Editing a comment
        Lol, ok, ATL will only win by 28....am I still allowed in your club??

      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        For another week.

    • #7
      TUESDAY SURVIVOR GRID....A number of road teams in the top group of teams with at least 1% in a pool.

      Am I missing something on the SF game? The line start low, but is going up, and not many are giving them a ton of love in the pools. I felt at times watching the game vs. MINN that they were going to find a way to win! Hmmmm...I will be picking them at least once.

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      • #8
        Had GB and Balt last week, so feel lucky to stil be in the pool with all entries. I think the team Dr for GB was in a survivor pool and got Aaron back in there.

        All weeks are tricky and wacky--but

        I wanted to say something about division games..
        I think that time of year plays a part in should you go there or not. I have some data from a source I respect and gives the following since 2010

        Since 2010, in the regular season:
        • [*=1]All Division Favorites are 375-182-2 (67%) [*=1]All NON-Division Favorites are 627-310-1 (67%)


        It's broken down further but in doesn't deem to matter if the matchup is division or not is all Im saying.
        My two cents, I know that is NOT our esteemed Exhausted Ruler Rick's take, just wanted to throw it out there.


        This week I am going with the Rams and perhaps the Saints, who I think will bounce back against a Browns team that may have looked better than they are-- I know Rams are big faves in the pools but I cant let that stop me every week--Have to bob and weave sometimes but even Ali took a few rounds off every so often--


        Good luck to all
        Let's get to three- all of we

        Comment


        • Seahawk Rick
          Seahawk Rick commented
          Editing a comment
          Oh great Compass, just come by the party and drop a big ole turd in the punch bowl! Lol!

          I get it....I don't say NEVER take a division game BUT, if there are equal or better options that are home, or even roadies, I think that is a better way to go.

          Your numbers make it seem like it doesn't matter all that much, but we just saw a big favorite lose, and another one (gb) need a miracle to not lose...And yet another favorite tie with CLEVE.

          This week I think LAR is a play if you don't have any home team, non-division options that you like. I might be on LAR as I have 4-picks in 3 pools and want to spread it around. I reupped in one pool that allows it after the first week only.

          Big favorites can be taken here and there, but a steady diet is not conducive to a long survivor life as those games are what take pools down 30-40% in a week, BUT not every week!

          Good luck party POOPER! ;-)

      • #9
        With one pick will take NO.

        Comment


        • #10
          Also think Buffalo May win and will bet them plus7 1/2

          Comment


          • Seahawk Rick
            Seahawk Rick commented
            Editing a comment
            Why do you think BUFF can win Volo??
            Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 09-12-2018, 08:37 AM.

        • #11
          Tough 1st week. I thought I had made a great move going Lions instead of Saints, then MNF happened. Here are the only games that I'm considering at the moment.

          Saints vs. Browns - Saints looked terrible and Browns didn't lose. The Browns won the turnover battle 6 to 1 and still had to make a big 4th quarter comeback to get the tie. No way Brees is as careless with the ball as Big Ben is at times. Probably safest pick IMHO.

          Broncos vs. Raiders - Broncos are still a top D and can run the ball again once they finally got a competent QB. However, the Raiders game against the Rams was much closer than the score shows. Carr made two of the worst decisions I've seen towards the end of that game that resulted in 10 points for the Rams and at least -3 for the Raiders. Still getting used to Chucky's offense.

          NIners vs. Lions - Niners looked okay, Lions looked atrocious. Still get an uneasy feeling becuase that has always been Stafford's MO. Great one week, terrible the next. Lions defense is not good either so 9'ers is a possible pick.

          Chargers at Bills - Bills are worst team in the league and Chargers are top 15, maybe top 10 on paper and in my mind. I've also always been baffled at the love for Josh Allen in the draft or college for that matter. Don't like road teams but think Chargers win easily.

          Bears vs. Seahawks - Bears looked like the real deal. Even with Rodgers heroics, they would've won if their coach would've swallowed some ego with play calling and ran the ball at the end. Didn't watch the Seahawks game but didn't hear good things, and now without Doug. Russell will make plays but 6 sacks might be a low prediction for an up and coming Bears team. Would take some guts to make this pick.

          Comment


          • Seahawk Rick
            Seahawk Rick commented
            Editing a comment
            Good write-up Buck...

            I watched 49er game and they fumble at the MINN 2 yard line and a WR fell on one of Jimmy Jesus's picks....The game was closer than the score IMHO and Sf is a solid team that will get better....Tough place to play. Home field will help them a lot. They are my featured pick.

            CHI will beat SEA...SEA has injuries and a lot of new guys on D. 3 of Wilson's sacks were on him. He didn't make throws he normally makes but they abandoned the run game.

            I wouldn't touch the OAK/DEN game.

        • #12
          Line open 9 1/2 and is now 7 1/2.Chargers are coming East for 10AM PT game and Buffalo is going with Alan at QB.If line goes to 7 jump all over Bills.

          Comment


          • Seahawk Rick
            Seahawk Rick commented
            Editing a comment
            I wouldn't worry about the 10am start so much...It's gonna be SoCal weather back there, and they've done pretty well with the early starts over the years. I'd worry about a 1st time starting QB that is playing a good team. This isn't Darnold against the swiss cheese DET D come Sunday.

        • #13
          Ugh, what a first week losing 2 of 4 picks but at least the losses weren’t gut wrenching. Detroit and NO were such blow outs and got an easy win with Baltimore. Feeling like my GB win puts me on borrowed time.... Not sure what to expect this week beyond preparing for the second chance pool Adam is starting in week 3.

          Going to to roll with the Jimmy G train in SF as I don’t see the Detroit D getting better anytime soon and SF D should be able to contain Safford (hopefully) even on a good night. Looking at the Rams (hate division games!!!) or maybe roll the dice with Brees and company again as the Browns played a full 5 quarter game and are probably feeling it in week 2.

          Best set of luck to all. With this slate of games, we need it! HA!

          Comment


          • Seahawk Rick
            Seahawk Rick commented
            Editing a comment
            Sorry for the losses Deano...2-picks is enough to get to the promised land though!

            I like the SF pick a lot...Still not sure why people think they played an average game in MINN, which is fricking LOUD and they have a great defense. Jimmy Jesus will have a better game, and could get rolling on these kitties. Good luck!

        • #14
          Make sure you get your picks in for Adam's pool!!!!! Thursday 5pm Pacific Time deadline!

          Put some in as place-holders for Sunday deadline pools...

          Comment


          • #15
            Well, here goes nothing...

            I think Week 2 is the toughest week to pick as you really don't truly know all the contenders and all the pretenders yet. As I said above, some teams that look good Week 1 will falter, and the some teams that looked average at best will surprise.

            I've got 4-picks in 3-pools as I was able to reup in one of the pools that allows it after Week 1 games to make up for my stellar DET pick last week! I also have a shared pick in Adam's pool with BALT last week.

            Here are my picks for Adam's pool, and might stay this way into Sunday unless I read something to move me off one of them.

            SF (Twice + shared pick) -- NO -- LAC

            It pains me to be on two of the top popular teams, but I wanted to stay off division games.

            SF - I just think they played a good game vs. MINN, and have it easier at home with Jimmy Jesus at the helm. Not sure how DET fixes that D, and SF moved the ball fairly well against a much better D. I don't like doubling up, but did it last week, and on that train again this week. LAR is the only other team I like, but don't want to be on all the popular choices...Hard enough to be on two of them. Rolling dice.

            NO - THey can score, and I am counting on them fixing some of the pass defense issues they had with TB. Tyrod is a decent QB, but not he can put 30-points on the board for CLEVE. Might be a better game than people think, but I don't think CLEVE can win a shootout.

            LAC - A loss at their fake home isn't the end of the world, and going east for an early start isn't optimal, but the team they are playing is less than optimal. I'll take my chances that Josh Allen doesn't light it up vs. one of my jinx teams. I hope I broke the jinx last year with them when I was on them and they won.

            TRUST THY GUT is the name of the shared pick, and after watching WASH and INDY games, I feel INDY is better than people might think, not that they are great, but they were driving for a winning TD late vs CINN. ALex Smith looked great vs. ARI, but I don't think ARI offense is as good as INDY's on first glimpse, and could give WASH a run for their money. I wanted to take WASH, but will go a different direction.

            My 'PIOK OF THE WEEK' in my 'If I had only one pick' exercise is SF

            **I usually get a severe case of the heebee-jeebees on Thursday as the Adam pool deadline approaches, so I might change something, but will try not to!
            Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 09-12-2018, 09:28 PM.

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