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Baseball System 2019

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  • Baseball System 2019

    Baseball system 2019

    Baseball has started and time to dust off the system. As a matter of fact there were 4 plays this afternoon and as I was travelling, I missed them all: Jays, Rays, royals and Dodgers.

    Last year it was a small loser because of RL losses. I’m going to only do ml to start off , so I’ll have 200 units BR for ml. Last year was also marred by VFV forum being down , posting by email and on tpking site.

    Hopefully it goes smoothly this year. That being said I’m travelling this week and that’s why I missed today.




    I’m going to use just one thread and just accumulate results therein until it fills then I’ll start a new one.

    2018 results
    SU: 280-199 (0.63, 58.5%) avg line: -154.0 on: +$1,233 ROI: +1.6%
    RL: 232-246 (-0.15, 48.5%) avg line: -102.7 on: -$2,260 ROI: -3.8



    Season 2013 was similar but In the last 5 years it was a winner, so I’m optimistic for a rebound.

    5 year results


    SU: 1512-928 (0.98, 62.0%) avg line: -144.6 on +$29,061 ROI: +8.0%
    RL: 1259-1178 (0.17, 51.7%) avg line: 106.0 on : +$17,308 ROI: +6.0%
    “Profits are calculated based on risking the line to win $100 when playing on favorites and risking $100 to win the line when playing on dogs.”

    Now betting <-170ml at win% of 62% is a losing proposition so the lower odds must win at a greater rate and they do.

    So for each bet, I alter the query to capture the range of the odds. e.g. if Line is -190 ,I frame the query to only look at games between -170 and -200 to get the win% . In this example the result was a 5 year win% of 70% @ avg odds of -187 for a profit of $4488 and the sample size was 300 games.
    SU: 223-95 (1.64, 70.1%) avg line: -187.2 on : +$4,488 ROI: +7.5%
    If the sample size is too small I’ll open the odds range window to try to get 100 games

    I’ll use 1/3 Kelly for my bet size using the associated win % and size my bet based on a starting BR of 200 units, with the min bet being 1 unit and the max bet 10 units per game and 30 units per day.

    Here’s the proposed format with an example


    Date odds range W L % Team Am. Odds Odds Bet Bankrool


    20170714 HF<=-125 87 42 67. Mets -149 0.67 6.5 units 200units



    "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
    “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

  • #2
    Thanks and good luck

    Comment


    • #3
      Very intriguing,, anxious to follow the 2019 journey!! Good luck,, anything today in the sytsem??

      Comment


      • #4
        April 1 no plays
        we didn’t bet but Heres what happened yesterday
        Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L
        Mar 31, 2019 box Sun home Blue Jays Trent Thornton - R Tigers Matt Moore - L 3-4 -1 L
        Mar 31, 2019 box Sun home Dodgers Walker Buehler - R Diamondbacks Luke Weaver - R 8-7 1 W
        Mar 31, 2019 box Sun home Rays Yonny Chirinos - R Astros Wade Miley - L 3-1 2 W
        PS Seems the Royals dropped out from being a play. This is an odds related system and I must closely monitor the odds as a 5 point change in ml odds often disqualifies a play.
        Last edited by Barryt; 04-01-2019, 12:34 PM. Reason: PS
        "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
        “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

        Comment


        • #5
          Your system is too confusing and needs lots of work. SIMPLIFY!

          Comment


          • Buckeyefan80
            Buckeyefan80 commented
            Editing a comment
            Bet on "Team." Really not hard. I don't know how anyone buys plays off you if you can't even figure this simple system out.

        • #6
          Originally posted by WhoDatCOUGSdat View Post
          Your system is too confusing and needs lots of work. SIMPLIFY!
          Works for me. If you’re lazy you r in the wrong forum
          "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
          “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

          Comment


          • #7
            Today’s plays
            Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter odds Win% Bet
            Apr 02, 2019 box Tue away Diamondbacks Zack Greinke - R Padres Eric Lauer - L -101 52 2
            Apr 02, 2019 box Tue away Astros Justin Verlander - R Rangers Shelby Miller - R -205 74 13(max 10)
            Apr 02, 2019 box Tue away Twins Jose Berrios - R Royals Brad Keller - R -140 67 13(max10)


            "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
            “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

            Comment


            • #8
              Very interesting Barry. What does the Bet 2, 13(max 10) mean? Are you saying you're betting $1300 on the Astros and Twins?

              Comment


              • #9
                Originally posted by Barryt View Post

                Works for me. If you’re lazy you r in the wrong forum
                Barry, open your eyes for 1 second, please:
                RL: 232-246 (-0.15, 48.5%) avg line: -102.7 on: -$2,260 ROI: -3.8

                Comment


                • Buckeyefan80
                  Buckeyefan80 commented
                  Editing a comment
                  If you actually READ the post you would have read that last year was a down year for RL and the reason the system lost. The previous 5 years the RL was profitable. I really don't understand why you will talk so much shit about people's posts without actually reading through the thread. You really would save yourself a lot of scrutiny if you did that. I'm sure once again you will not take the constructive criticism and you will once again throw out a post that gets you banned...AGAIN!!!

              • #10
                If you're losing nearly $2300 on even-money lines then seriously go take up basket weaving instead.

                Comment


                • #11
                  Originally posted by WhoDatCOUGSdat View Post
                  If you're losing nearly $2300 on even-money lines then seriously go take up basket weaving instead.
                  Take it down a notch tough guy. First off, he said he was only doing ML for now. Second, I didn't see anywhere that he was begging you to follow his system. It is an interesting discussion that some of us want to see how it plays out.

                  Comment


                  • #12
                    Originally posted by Bucky View Post
                    Very interesting Barry. What does the Bet 2, 13(max 10) mean? Are you saying you're betting $1300 on the Astros and Twins?
                    Bet 2 means 1/3 Kelly says bet 2 units( out of 200): bet13 ( max 10 ) means 1/3 Kelly says to bet 13 units , but I’m limiting my play to 10 units per game.
                    When called for I’ll also limit my daily play to 30 units.
                    so if your BR is $200= $200 units, bet $2 on DBacks and $10 on Astros &Twins. If BR IS $1000, $5 per unit bet $10 and $50. Make sure you bet “to risk” $50 and not “to win” 50

                    ps just to be clear A bet of $1300 would require a BR of $26000, outta my league
                    Last edited by Barryt; 04-02-2019, 02:55 PM. Reason: ps
                    "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
                    “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

                    Comment


                    • #13
                      April03

                      Yesterday went 2-1 but only broke even. Also a late line move made Tampa Rays a play, but I was too busy to catch it.

                      Today 3 plays


                      Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter odds Win% Bet1/3 Kelly W/L Win BR(200)
                      Apr 02, 2019 box Tue away Diamondbacks Zack Greinke - R Padres Eric Lauer - L -101 52 2 W 2 202
                      Apr 02, 2019 box Tue away Astros Justin Verlander - R Rangers Shelby Miller - R -205 74 13(max 10) L -10 192
                      Apr 02, 2019 box Tue away Twins Jose Berrios - R Royals Brad Keller - R -140 67 13(max 10) W 7.5 199.5
                      Apr 03, 2019 box Wed home Indians Corey Kluber - R White Sox Carlos Rodon - L -178 65 2
                      Apr 03, 2019 box Wed away Mets Jacob deGrom - R Marlins Trevor Richards - R -220 73 8
                      Apr 03, 2019 box Wed away Twins Kyle Gibson - R Royals Homer Bailey - R -148 73 22(10 max)
                      Note if Twins 0dds rise to -145 or more they wouldn’t be a play.However I’m committed at present odds as I have other commitments today
                      "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
                      “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

                      Comment


                      • #14
                        So lemme get this straight your "system play" goes 2-1 yet only BRAKES EVEN???????????????????????? No thanks.

                        Why would anyone want to play such a system? IDK about any1 else but when I go 2-1 I damn sure better WIN SOME MONEY

                        Comment


                        • #15
                          2-1 wednesday
                          1 play today A's but at odds of +105 history says that's not profitable so no play
                          I dropped my iPad and cracked the screen I'll update when I get my iPad back later today. Cant do it on my phone.
                          "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
                          “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

                          Comment

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