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NBA - 2019 Playoffs - 4/13 to 4/19

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  • NBA - 2019 Playoffs - 4/13 to 4/19

    The projections posted here are based on player and team statistics, injuries, and past performance matchups data, accrued over the 2018-19 NBA season; and, although projected scores are indicated, the model has never proven a reliable indicator of over/under totals. Whatever value the model has is in the projected margin of victory (MOV); and it’s on this MOV that the projected ATS pick is made, using the most current consensus lines available from the Vegas Insider website.

    It needs to be noted, however, that although the projected MOV doesn’t change, the model’s ATS Final Pick frequently does, as, obviously, such a pick is based on lines that change themselves – sometimes wildly; and it’s against the Vegas Insider closing lines that the model is graded.

    Much like the weekly NBA projections posted earlier, the playoff projections will be posted daily (in a weekly thread) as quickly as I can gather all the necessary data; so, depending on the editing features available, to view the most current projections you may need to scroll to the bottom of the thread. This first week, as I have the data needed, I’m posting the night before.

    Finally, I’m a one-man band, and old as dirt, so apologies in advance if I’m a little late sometimes. Also, although I never fade my own projections, I seldom bet every game. Statistics can be a good guide, but they don’t trump reality; and, if you watch the NBA like a fanatic (like me), you know that players and teams go hot and cold, often out of nowhere, and numbers alone can be a big lie.

    Good luck to all.

    WJCJR

  • #2
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    • #3
      Thanks and good luck

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      • #4
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        Last edited by WJCJR; 04-13-2019, 10:57 PM.

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        • #5
          Did you change your selection on the GS game last night? You originally had GS posted, but then in your "grades" you are showing you had LAC. Would a 1 point swing in the line cause you to change your mind like that? Good call with SA. Best of luck, will be following along all playoffs, as any edge I can get in NBA wagering is much appreciated.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by gcotton View Post
            Did you change your selection on the GS game last night? You originally had GS posted, but then in your "grades" you are showing you had LAC. Would a 1 point swing in the line cause you to change your mind like that? Good call with SA. Best of luck, will be following along all playoffs, as any edge I can get in NBA wagering is much appreciated.
            It’s all about the numbers. My projection had the Warriors winning by 12.6, and the original line of -12.5 thus had them covering, so the pick was GS. When the line jumped to -13.5 and exceeded the 12.6 MOV, the pick flipped to LA – and an ATS loss for the model. In order to grade the model honestly the projected MOV won’t change once posted, but line movement will flip picks from time to time.

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            • #7
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              • #8
                OMG if it ain't another seemingly overcomplicated "system" that ain't seem to be worth 2 shits and a bag of bricks 😂😂😂

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                • #9
                  Saturday’s loss dropped the model’s MOV projection on the 76ers from 9.9 to 7.9 – a full 2 points; and that’s with Embid at 80%! Today’s line, however, has steadily increased from -7.5 to -8.5. Nevertheless, both NumberFire and Team Rankings are projecting a Nets’ cover at +8.5. If Ebid is OUT this is an easy call, and the 76ers are supposed to make an announcement soon. But the line movement is puzzling.

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                  • #10
                    WhereVOLOs ZIG ZAG
                    IM SURE IT WOULD BE ON PHA AND LAC, SU loser of first game
                    "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
                    “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

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                    • Mrvolo
                      Mrvolo commented
                      Editing a comment
                      Posted in another blog and did not want to beat the drums this year but as posted had both to go 2-0.3 plays tonight.After many years of success I had 2 or 3 losing years and last year I had to hide out for 6 months it was so bad.

                  • #11
                    SoPHA won 2nd half convincingly and has covered by 14 or so
                    I’m now playing on LAC +13.5 -105. I’ve been reviewing scores earlier in the year and GSW seems to have a tremendous 3 rd Q record so I may hedge if it’s tight at 1/2.
                    "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
                    “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

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                    • #12
                      Originally posted by Barryt View Post
                      WhereVOLOs ZIG ZAG
                      IM SURE IT WOULD BE ON PHA AND LAC, SU loser of first game
                      Pretty sure the zigzag effect accounted for the line increase on PHI.

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                      • #13
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                        • #14
                          Defies logic but LAC overcame 23 point halftime deficit to win SU as 14 point dogs. So VOLO ZIG ZAG is 2-0
                          3 games today
                          SCHEDULE FOR TUESDAY APRIL 16, 2019
                          Time (ET) Away Home Site
                          8:05 PM Orlando Magic Toronto Raptors Scotiabank Arena
                          9:05 PM San Antonio Spurs Denver Nuggets Pepsi Center
                          10:35 PM Oklahoma City Thunder Portland Trail Blazers Moda Center at the Rose Quarte
                          Betting
                          TOR-10
                          DENV-6
                          OKC +2
                          "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
                          “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

                          Comment


                          • Mrvolo
                            Mrvolo commented
                            Editing a comment
                            After Denver we are 4-0.Hope my friends cashed.

                          • Barryt
                            Barryt commented
                            Editing a comment
                            Yeah. But then we lost with OKC so 4-1

                        • #15
                          ZIG ZAG TODAY(4-1 so far)
                          This is where I have to get off the ZIG ZAG
                          MIL vs DET SZIGZAG says to bet on DET@+15. They were +15 last game and lost by 40. So why should they get within 15 today, sure they may play better but they have to play 25 points better.
                          Similarly UTah lost by 30 and are now expected to cover 7. It just doesn’t make sense.
                          However the INDY game is appealing as they lost by 10 and now are being asked to cover 71/2. Seems reasonable
                          so that’s my approach . Bet on INDY +7.5 hope for +8 by game time and pass on the other 2 ( or even bet against a ZIGZAG)
                          gl
                          barryt
                          "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
                          “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

                          Comment


                          • Mrvolo
                            Mrvolo commented
                            Editing a comment
                            OK, we get to 4-1 and I try not to make a case for the ZZ and bet blindly.Will be on 3 dogs and hope for a sweep.Nobody thought LA comes back but they did.GL

                          • WJCJR
                            WJCJR commented
                            Editing a comment
                            3 seconds to go, down 6 points, and Indy fouls an 84% free throw shooter?
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