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  • Monday April 15th All Sports

    38-36 +3.44

    All 5 Inning Plays

    Baltimore +183
    STL +118
    Toronto +114
    CWS -125

  • #2
    The case against zig-zag theory of betting

    Jeff Fogle
    VSiN.com


    April 14, 2019 09:40 PM



    Now that all NBA first-round playoff series have finished their openers, many bettors are thinking about one thing…the zig zag!
    There are many variations of what’s called “the zig-zag theory” in playoff betting.
    • To some, it means skipping the first game, then betting the straight up loser of the prior game against the spread the next time out. The theory is that whoever lost the prior game will be super-motivated to play great, while the winner might make the mistake of relaxing.
    • To others, it means skipping the first game, then betting whoever didn’t cover the point spread in the prior game because ATS results should regress toward break-even over time. It’s a fast variation on “the due theory,” with the team that didn’t cover the prior game due to cover this one.
    • Old school bettors (some of whom will claim they’re the ones that invented “the zig-zag theory” back in the day) will tell you that you’re supposed to bet the home teams in Games 1 and 3 because the crowds will be extra boisterous, but then bet the previous straight up loser in any other game.
    Who’s right? Is there an actual strategy bettors should use that’s very likely to earn a profit?
    Look, the market KNOWS about the zig-zag theory. A liquid market is the sum of all models…and that’s one strategy that’s been absorbed into the stew. It may work some years. It’s extremely likely to work in a few series. The trick is knowing in advance which those will be.
    Working against the zig-zag (any variation):
    • Superior teams have become much more aggressive in recent years about finishing early rounds as quickly as possible. The more good teams rest, the fresher they are when a championship is on the line. If an elite team sweeps a series with big victories, the zig zag takes a bath. If a few do that, good news from more competitive matchups probably won’t be enough to earn an overall playoff profit.
    • Three-point shooting is erratic, which is a randomizer that can have a mind of its own. The highs and lows of this dynamic aren’t interested in following along with the zig zag. It’s possible for a team of shooters to be hot or cold for more than one game at a time.
    • Betting’s standard 11/10 vigorish works against any strategy. That’s a harder hurdle to clear than most gamblers realize. If your zig-zag bets post a 50/50 record, you lose money. You must hit 52.4% of your bets to break even, and probably at least 54% for a strategy to feel like it’s worth your while.
    There will be some bounce backs this week. A few of those are likely to beat the spread by big margins. But that doesn’t mean you should bet every possible bounce back. Sharps focus on team skill sets, and whether or not market prices properly capture those skill sets.

    Comment


    • Mrvolo
      Mrvolo commented
      Editing a comment
      For 25 years or so I only played the second game of each series and showed a profit for 22 years but the last 3 were wipe outs.I see many reasons in the above by VSIN.Lost a feel for it but will bet the first two tonight,76’s and Clippers just in case but will stop if it goes 0-2.Miss your input JD.Hear Saratoga is now charging for Picnic Tables.

    • Mrvolo
      Mrvolo commented
      Editing a comment
      2-0 with my old system.Tonight Toronto,Denver and Oak City.Did not talk it up this year but as posted played it for old time sake last night.

  • #3
    thanks jd.....good luck

    Comment


    • #4
      If memory serves,last few years zig zag in 1st 2 rounds failed miserably and came back towards .500 in semi's and finals. Thx ,all.

      Comment


      • #5
        NBA 4-3 +.70

        Over 225 Philly
        Golden State -13.5

        NHL 8-9 -3.50

        Toronto -115
        Washington +120
        Under 6 Calgary

        MLB 56-44-1 +3.80

        Cubs -140
        WSox -120
        Over 9.5 Milwaukee
        Under 8.5 Minnesota
        Mets +110

        GL to all

        Comment


        • #6
          layin the chalk again with GS eh?

          Comment

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