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  • TNF starting SEP 5

    Last year we rode the TNF to a
    day = Thursday and HF and season = 2018
    SU: 11-1-0 (13.08, 91.7%) Chiefs lost to Chargers
    ATS: 10-1-1 (7.29, 90.9% Rams Vikes pushed
    ... record including a txgiving day game.. our premise was that TNF gave the home team the advantage due to the short week with travel for the road team.
    the all time record for HF is
    114-32-0 (8.41, 78.1%)
    88-53-5 (2.31, 62.4%)
    However closer examination shows week1 , where disruption should be neglible, in a very small sample, the HF does better than the rest of the season
    day = Thursday and HF and week = 1
    SU: 13-1-0 (8.79, 92.9%) Only loser was Pats 2004
    ATS: 9-3-2 (3.71, 75.0%) avg line: -5.1
    In the past it’s been SB [email protected] home, but this year it’s [email protected] So that does make a difference as It was the SB champs first game after winning.


    As far as regular handicapping is concerned a case can be made for either team, but I’d lean to Chi as they kept their coach, while Gbay is all new. IMO the line reflects Green Bay being back to the glory days and I’m not buying it. Yet!

    LMM also picks the Bears 29-20 and the LIMPER 30-24
    "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
    “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

  • #2
    Contest has it 3 lines out

    Comment


    • #3
      The caution about the TNF trend for week 1 was heeded and money saved as the Bears and Packers both struggled to score.On the other hand the implied 13-1 ATS for SB champs won easily and money was made

      Now we are back to normal TNF routine. The only caution is once again this is a division game
      Here's the stats for home favs.
      day = Thursday and week > 1 and HF
      SU:101-31-0 (8.37, 76.5%)
      ATS:79-50-3 (2.16, 61.2%) avg line: -6.2

      The way all the money is on Car I'm betting now to avoid the rise from 6.5 to 7
      1/2 Kellly says to bet 9% of BR. That's normally a little steep for me., esp a Div game, but I'll make separate BR just for TNF and bet 9% of that.
      There are 14 moreTNF and the 2 Txgiving Aft games
      Gl Barryt
      "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
      “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

      Comment


      • #4
        Wrote this for week 3 but forgot the " post" button
        Week=3
        Another Division game but a home dog.
        Home dogs are 36-45 and Div HD are 18-20
        Jax won outright as home dog. I passed as HD were just 18-20 ATS
        Week 4
        GBY -4 hosts PHA
        HF are 79-51= 60.8% ATS
        HF non Div are 36-13 =69% ATS
        We lost our $50 bet on Car 2 weeks ago so our BR is now $950
        Using the larger sample 60.8% and 1/2 kelly says to bet $86. Feel confident to bet this as the smaller sample says to bet $172 and I believe there are other factors that favor GBY.
        "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
        “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

        Comment


        • #5
          BarryT has done some great original work on the home favorite Thursday night trend. I was 6-1 last year following this trend and I'm grateful. After the Packers won in week 1, I took another look and this is what I found:

          Week 1: Counting this year, the Thursday home favorite is 9-4-2 ATS
          Week 2 thru week 7: Thursday home favorite is 12-15-1 ATS
          Week 8 thru week 14: Thursday home favorite is 60-30-1 ATS
          Week 15 thru week 16: Thursday home favorite is 7-6-1 ATS

          Conclusion:

          Week 1: I can't explain. The teams are rested. I believe in the long run this is going to even out.
          Week 2 thru 7: This is a small data set but the home favorite is under .500. I conclude here that the teams are not worn down so it came out more or less like I would expect. I'm not going to bet the Thursday night favorite in these weeks. But, it is a small data set.
          Week 8 thru week 14: This is a larger data set which incorporates the Thanksgiving games. It is 67% ATS. Teams are starting to wear down. These are the Thurs home favs I'm going to bet.
          Week 15-16: Too small a data set; too close to .500. I'll pass here.

          Food for thought.

          Comment


          • Barryt
            Barryt commented
            Editing a comment
            Week 1 is Super Bowl champ at home except this year

        • #6
          Capcondo is on the right road.
          GBY had every chance but poor red zone performance .
          Also run defence was non existant.
          "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
          “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

          Comment


          • #7
            If this game were played last week, what would the line be. Hint Westgate look ahead was Rams-1. 5
            Lyr Rams won by 2. So I expect a close game with lots of yardageby both sides so my feeling it’s going to Over 49 it may be over 59. Just check the weather!
            gl
            barryt
            "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
            “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

            Comment


            • #8
              Like the Rams to bounce back from a horrible game. They opened -1.5 and all the money has poured in on the Seahawks. An overreaction. Goff will steady the ship. His receivers will get open and the Rams D was embarrassed and will be eager to make amends.

              Comment


              • #9
                Originally posted by DaveyShines View Post
                Like the Rams to bounce back from a horrible game. They opened -1.5 and all the money has poured in on the Seahawks. An overreaction. Goff will steady the ship. His receivers will get open and the Rams D was embarrassed and will be eager to make amends.
                Surprised the score wasn’t higher although turn overs after long drives and missed field goals kept the score down but still well over 49. Rams D has trouble against the run and WILSON is too elusive for any pass rush to be effective. Next week SF offers similar challenge for Rams D but Garrafalo is probably not as elusive as WILSON nor WINSTON,.
                That being said, I have never actually seen Garrafalo play
                "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
                “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

                Comment


                • #10
                  Originally posted by capcondo View Post
                  BarryT has done some great original work on the home favorite Thursday night trend. I was 6-1 last year following this trend and I'm grateful. After the Packers won in week 1, I took another look and this is what I found:

                  Week 1: Counting this year, the Thursday home favorite is 9-4-2 ATS
                  Week 2 thru week 7: Thursday home favorite is 12-15-1 ATS
                  Week 8 thru week 14: Thursday home favorite is 60-30-1 ATS
                  Week 15 thru week 16: Thursday home favorite is 7-6-1 ATS

                  Conclusion:

                  Week 1: I can't explain. The teams are rested. I believe in the long run this is going to even out.
                  Week 2 thru 7: This is a small data set but the home favorite is under .500. I conclude here that the teams are not worn down so it came out more or less like I would expect. I'm not going to bet the Thursday night favorite in these weeks. But, it is a small data set.
                  Week 8 thru week 14: This is a larger data set which incorporates the Thanksgiving games. It is 67% ATS. Teams are starting to wear down. These are the Thurs home favs I'm going to bet.
                  Week 15-16: Too small a data set; too close to .500. I'll pass here.

                  Food for thought.
                  It is now week 8 and I quote Capcondo

                  Week 8 thru week 14: This is a larger data set which incorporates the Thanksgiving games. It is 67% ATS. Teams are starting to wear down. These are the Thurs home favs I'm going to bet.
                  And those Fav by 10 or more are 10-1 ATS and repeating myself from today’s thread
                  Dont think MINNY will overlook WASH as they remember losing outright to Buffalo last year with a similar line. The O line was their down fall last year as Buff D had their way with them
                  This year the Oline is much better
                  Min -16.5
                  Last edited by Barryt; 10-24-2019, 01:17 PM.
                  "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
                  “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

                  Comment


                  • #11
                    Min didn’t try to score the last 9 min of the game, it was excruciating to watch .
                    "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
                    “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

                    Comment


                    • #12
                      To be honest with you, last week (week #8), I didn't play the Thursday night game between the Vikings and Washington due to the size of the line. However, after reading Barry's comments above, I ran a query in the database I use to find out how Thursday home favorites have fared when favored by more than 14 points between week 8 and week 14. This only happened one other time in 1992 when the Cowboys covered against the Giants on Thanksgiving as a 16 pt. favorite 30-3.

                      There are likely four Thursday home favorites this year prior to week 15. They are:

                      Week 11: Browns vs. Steelers
                      Week 12: Texans vs. Colts
                      Week 13: Cowboys vs. Bills
                      Week 14: Bears vs. Cowboys

                      This week, Cards at home against the Niners will not qualify since the Niners are heavily favored.

                      GL

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