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Week 2 in the NFL

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  • Week 2 in the NFL

    Week 2 in the NFL presents opportunities due to an over reaction to the results of week 1. Last year, I presented a method which went 3-1 ATS. You can search for this post by entering my user name (capcondo) in the search field. Here's how it works:

    Any team that lost by more than 10 pts. in week 1 who is playing a team that lost by less than 10 pts. or won is a bet. It worked well last year and for 6 or 7 years prior but did not have a great track record going back 10 years (although it was a winning method).

    Since that time, BarryT introduced me to a database that allowed me to test other methods rather easily. Here's what I found:

    The method above was 23-18-1 ATS 56.1 % for week 2 in the last 10 seasons going back to 2009.

    Method #2 for week 2:

    It is the same as above (team lost by more than 10 in week 1 and the opponent lost by less than 10 in week 1). I also added the condition that the team played is an underdog and the line is <= +7.

    Results were 16-7 ATS 69.6% since the 2009 season for week 2.

    Method #3 for week 2:

    Here, the team played lost in week 1 and the team played against won in week 1 (margin of victory is not important). Once again, the team played must be a dog and the line must be <= +7.

    Results were 26-13 ATS 66.7% since the 2009 season for week 2.

    I would use method #3 over method #2 due to the number of plays (about 4 plays on average for week 2). I like #3 and #2 because they eliminate big underdogs who are over matched, i.e. those teams that are greater than +7.

    See next post for this years plays.

  • #2
    Method # 1:

    Bucs vs. Panthers +6.5
    Dolphins vs. Patriots +18.5
    Falcons vs. Eagles +1.5
    Giants vs. Bills +1.5
    Steelers vs. Seahawks -4
    Jaguars vs. Texans +7.5 -120
    Browns vs. Jets -6.5

    Method #2:

    Bucs vs. Panthers +6.5
    Giants vs. Bills +1.5
    Falcons vs. Eagles +1.5

    Method #3: (My preferred method)

    Giants vs. Bills +1.5
    Redskins vs. Cowboys +6
    Colts vs. Titans +3 EV
    Falcons vs. Eagles +1.5

    Lines are current vegas insider consensus. Will grade picks next week against VI consensus closing lines.

    Last edited by capcondo; 09-15-2019, 09:50 AM. Reason: Updating lines Sunday noon ET


    • #3
      This didn't turn out as well as I'd hoped but it wasn't a total disaster. Here are the results:

      Method 1 was 4-3 with the Bucs, Falcons, Jags, and Browns covering.
      Method 2 was 2-1 with the Bucs and Falcons covering.
      My preferred method did the worst of the three going 2-2.

      My week 2 method doesn't do well every year. Good luck the rest of the season.