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How high can this line go?

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  • How high can this line go?

    New England opened up as a 15-point favorite at Miami. The game has been bet up to the Patriots -19 0ver the Dolphins. Getting 19 points at home is very tempting. Miami has a history of playing NE well at home. After all, it is an early season division game.However, I think that NE will probably be ahead by about 24 points sometime during the game and Miami might need to come through the back door to get the cover. Possibly betting under 48 points might be the superior wager. I can see NE slowing the game down when the Patriots have a big lead.
    Last edited by TARB; 09-11-2019, 07:59 AM.

  • #2
    I don't think it will go over 24 but I do think it will reach 21. After 21 many people stop as they have been burned before
    with that many points. I think by half it will be 35-3

    Comment


    • #3
      FYI (both teams qualify for these trends)


      Last 10 years, NFL teams that won by 28+ points in Week 1 are 1-10 vs spread in Week 2. NFL teams that lost by 28+ points in Week 1 are 7-3-1 vs spread in Week 2

















      Comment


      • capcondo
        capcondo commented
        Editing a comment
        Very insightful JD. I'll have to think about it. Thanks.

    • #4
      Originally posted by TARB View Post
      New England opened up as a 15-point favorite at Miami. The game has been bet up to the Patriots -19 0ver the Dolphins. Getting 19 points at home is very tempting. Miami has a history of playing NE well at home. After all, it is an early season division game.However, I think that NE will probably be ahead by about 24 points sometime during the game and Miami might need to come through the back door to get the cover. Possibly betting under 48 points might be the superior wager. I can see NE slowing the game down when the Patriots have a big lead.
      I was thinking same thing about Miami playing NE well at home but i dont think miami is in the same mindset as normal.

      Comment


      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        MIA has had some nice wins recently vs NE in MIA...That was win they had football teams, and not the disgruntled college team they are fielding currently. I think a number of MIA players will actually try to play hard as they would love to say they beat NE, and stick a thumb into everyone's eye that think they're dog meat going into this game. The question is, will it matter...

    • #5
      You can get Miami +32 1/2 at minus 770 at Sugarhouse right now. Don't think I'll bite laying that much but it is interesting.

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      • #6
        My question is, why would anyone want to even bet this game? I guess there are folks that will play the big home dog, regardless of circumstances, as well as the public who will look for NE to blow out MIA, spread be damned. Otherwise, why would you want to touch this? HUGE home dog in a division game getting historical number of points. I can't make an argument to put my money on either. Maybe both sides of the narrative will counter each other? Maybe in influx of public NE money closer to kick off, driving it up even further? No clue. One side will likely come out ahead, but I won't trying to predict which side that is.

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        • #7
          Sounds like there's enough resistance out there to keep this from steaming too high...but I'm waiting in case I'm wrong

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          • #8
            I asked Volo if this line should not be 27 pts or higher as bad as the Dolphs are. But with Miami weather this time of year - high heat, humidity and possible storms - his advice was simply "stay inside"
            lol

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            • #9
              I just ran a query on a database on all regular season games since 1990 where the line is greater than 18 which is the case here. There have been 16 games since 1990 (that's as far back as my database goes). The last game was in 2013 six years ago when the Jags got 26 at Denver and covered losing by 16. So, if you are waiting for this to happen again, you may be waiting a long time. In all 16 games, the dog lost the game SU. The dog covered the spread 11 times or 69% of the time. There has only been one other case where the dog was at home. Interestingly it was the Ravens against the Patriots in 2007 when the Ravens were getting 20 and lost by 3. So, if you are waiting for this to happen again with the dog at home, you are really going to be waiting a long time.

              GL

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              • #10
                I've decided to place a bet on under 48.5 points in the NE / Miami game.

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                • #11
                  The under is the only play here. Agree with TARB.

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                  • #12
                    Originally posted by florabamaboy View Post
                    The under is the only play here. Agree with TARB.
                    If Baltimore can lay 59 on them, who's to say that the vindictive Belichick/Brady combo won't squish the Fish (and their HC, the ex-Pat DC) by putting up 49 all by themselves? My play would be to lay however many points are available at game time. It doesn't matter. NE should win this going away, despite their recent struggles in South Fla.

                    Comment


                    • florabamaboy
                      florabamaboy commented
                      Editing a comment
                      you nailed it. god the fish are bad. i have gone against them in my survivor pool both weeks and might just choose whoever is playing against them every week when possible.

                  • #13
                    Originally posted by capcondo View Post
                    I just ran a query on a database on all regular season games since 1990 where the line is greater than 18 which is the case here. There have been 16 games since 1990 (that's as far back as my database goes). The last game was in 2013 six years ago when the Jags got 26 at Denver and covered losing by 16. So, if you are waiting for this to happen again, you may be waiting a long time. In all 16 games, the dog lost the game SU. The dog covered the spread 11 times or 69% of the time. There has only been one other case where the dog was at home. Interestingly it was the Ravens against the Patriots in 2007 when the Ravens were getting 20 and lost by 3. So, if you are waiting for this to happen again with the dog at home, you are really going to be waiting a long time.

                    GL
                    Should happen again on 12/1 when Phila goes to Miami

                    Comment


                    • #14
                      Watching the press conference the other day with every question being about the status of AB leads me to believe pats are laser focused heading into this game. Just what miami needs, an agitated coach B. I agree that pats will cover the over on their own, and we see a replay of the ravens dolphins game from last week. Good luck to all.

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                      • #15
                        Dolphins need to be placed on the no fly list......awful

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