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2019 nfl p.o.w. Week #4 (sept 26-30) post plays here

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  • #16
    Miami +16 1/2 Caesars
    The Fins have been terrible to start the season and once again they are double digit dogs. However; this isn't the Pats or the Boyz coming to town, it's the unpredictable San Diego Chargers. Fins showed some grit and signs of life last week against the Boyz even though they imploded late and failed to cover. Early start for west coast team traveling east and generous points to boot.


    • #17
      POW 0-3
      GB - 4 1/2 Westgate
      After losing my first 3 picks by a total of 6 1/2 points, maybe my luck will change in Lambaugh this Sunday. There's something going on with the birds this year and I just can't quite put my finger on it, but facing Rodgers and a much improved Packers defense isn't what the doctors ordered in breaking a two game losing streak. Pack stays undefeated.


      • Pittsburgh
        Pittsburgh commented
        Editing a comment
        This game is on Thurs night not Sunday.

    • #18
      Standings are now posted above......Man has this group been on fire!! Hit for 68% in Week 3 and now hitting at 62% overall. Keep up the great work guys!


      • #19
        pow 3-0
        chiefs -6 south point

        the Lions were the beneficiaries of a kickoff returned for a TD, a +2 turnover differential, and seven drops by Philadelphia. After a second straight Sunday seeing Detroit get a very fortunate win, the Lions come into Week 4 with one of the more fraudulent undefeated records....Not only are the Chiefs 3-0, but aside from the infallible Patriots they're a clear cut above the rest of the league. They're #1 in the NFL in yards per play on offense, with only Dallas and Baltimore coming within a full yard of their YPP prowess. If the lions had a loss I believe the line would be higher.....


        • #20
          POW 3-0

          TITANS +4 (EVERYWHERE)

          Feel like the Titans will take advantage of extra rest and preparation. Atlanta team is struggling at putting a full 4 quarters together and this looks like a fg game either way. Titans are much better in underdog role and will be the more physical team and more likely to establish the run.


          • #21
            NFL POW (2-1)

            Tampa Bay +10 (Everywhere).

            Perfect spot to fade the undefeated Rams, who I believe are due for a let down with a big divisional road game looming next Thursday @ Seattle, and folks still drinking the Kool-Aid from last year. TB LB Barrett (leading NFL with 8 sacks) should cause problems for the young offensive line of the Rams (their Achilles heel), and Winston seems to be slowly improving as most QB's do under Arians. Todd Bowles should have a good defensive game plan (not sure what happened with the 2nd half meltdown against the Giants except they were playing to not lose instead of to win), and Rams certainly were not impressive against a subpar Browns unit missing most of their starting secondary and could have lost if not for the inept coaching of Kitchens. Something also is not quite right with Goff this year, and getting 10 points with this not as bad as their record road dog is too many to pass up.


            • #22
              NFL P.O.W.(2-1-0)

              N.O. PLUS 3 (MIRAGE)

              I like Teddy—they are home—getting 3 vs a Dallas team who has torn up the league beating—Gmen week 1—Wash week 2 and Miami week 3—impressive no?

              Please—give me 3- NO looking good home

              Dak Prescott, who Dat?


              • #23
                NFL POW (3-0-0 YTD)

                Chiefs -6 (South Point)

                This was the same spread the Eagles/Lions game opened at before money came pouring in on the Lions due to the Eagles cluster injuries. And while I was on the Lions myself, that cover required some special teams magic and a good number of dropped balls. So all this comes down to for me is that I would take the Chiefs as at least a 3 point favorite over the Eagles on a neutral field and I will happily take anything less than a TD against the Lions even if it is on the road.


                • #24
                  My pic this week is the RAMS -9.5 Stations.
                  Tampa Bay goes on the raid cross country after giving up 32 points to a rookie marking his first start on the road. Tampa Bay loves to turn the ball over which will mean extra points for the rams, you make a mistake they make you pay. The rams are the Seahawks they play much differently at home than they do on the road. Tampa couldn’t stop the giants who have no receivers, not they get one of the best receiving groups in the league. This is a 17 point game at minimum in my opinion.


                  • #25
                    POW 3-0-0
                    Washington + 3 MGM
                    Even tho they are 0-3 they can put points on the board and did outplay Bears in second half.Giants have no defense and Jones is
                    good but not in TB class yet.Look for a letdown.Game also looks like a layup for NY and love to go other way on games like this.
                    GL to all


                    • #26

                      Washington - NY Giants Under 49 1/2 Everywhere.

                      Jones was one short missed FG away from being a loser last week and now all NY thinks he is the second coming off Fran Tarkington and Y.A. Tittle combined.
                      For you youngster they are two QBs who played decently for the old NY Football Giants. Anyhow I feel there will be a second game type sophomore jinx and his
                      game will not be so good. As for the Redskins; they suck. It all adds up to a low scoring boring game.


                      • #27
                        2019 NFL P.O.W. (2-1-0)

                        GB -4 Westgate

                        Read in this forum (and it makes sense) that home team on Thursday night games benefits from extra day of practice on short week. That advantage often translates to an edge on ATS picks. Pack often known for home field advantage in colder weather games, but their record is very strong in September games. In the past 15 home games played in September, the Pack is unbeaten: 14-0-1 SU and 11-4 ATS. Pack 8-5 last 13 games as home favorite, with average margin of victory of 6.1 points. Pack is also 3-0 ATS this season.

                        Eagles are 0-3 ATS this season, but 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS in primetime games since 2017. Eagles are also 6-3 ATS as road dog last 9 games...however, their margin of victory in those 9 games is minus 4.1 points. Eagles have been banged up, with CB Darby out and WR Jackson out - but WR Jeffrey returns. Pack has # 3 pass defense and #3 total defense.

                        Prediction: GB 23-17. GLTA!


                        • #28
                          NFL POW (2-1-0)

                          SEATTLE -4.5 (MGM MIRAGE)

                          Seattle lost a rare home game last week, but NO got 2 non-offensive TDs. They outyarded the Saints by a wide margin. The book is getting thicker on Murray as defensive gurus plan for him.
                          I think Seattle runs away with this one. The yardage will produce more points and the weather won't be a factor.
                          "Do what is right . . . and suffer the consequences" Sam Houston


                          • #29
                            POW YTD (2-1-0)

                            Beagles +4 @ Packers Westgate 3:50pm PDT

                            Don't normally jump in against home teams on Thursday night games as is a recipe for a thin wallet. Packer D has been terrific first 3 weeks. Think they will bend a little tonight against eagles as Coach Peterson dials up a quick strike faster paced attack than what Packers have faced so far. Concerned also with Packers 2nd half struggles to date, and don't see them jumping out to a 3 TD lead like they did against the vikes. Line seems a little fishy to me as expect a 3-0 team to be at least a 6 point favorite at home v a 1-2 team in this situation. Maybe a sucker bet, never too old to get caught up eh? 1st Thursday game for the new head coach, how about a slight upset tonight. Call it 27-23 Eagles.


                            • #30
                              NFL 2019 POW (3-0-0)

                              Green Bay -4 Stations

                              Ok, everyone knows about Green Bay's home field advantage. But this year, they are winning with defense - and turnovers. GB has +6 turnover margin due to having taken the ball away from opponents 8 times, while only giving it up twice in three games. Philly has -2 turnover margin due to taking ball away only 3 times, while coughing it up 5 times in three games. Philly's margin of victory in 0-3 ATS start is -0.7 pts, while GB's margin of victory on 3-0 ATS start is +7.7 pts. Phily's defense overall as well as its pass defense are in the bottom third of the league, giving up the ninth most points in the NFL...also in the bottom third of the NFL and more than twice as many points as Green Bay is allowing. Philly has been outscored this season despite not playing a good defensive team. Green Bay has played three of the top defenses in the league and won all three SU and ATS. Offensively they scored 27 on Denver and 21 on Minnesota. Against Philly's lesser (and injury hit) defense, Green Bay tops 30. Final score: GB 31-21.