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2019 nfl p.o.w. Week #4 (sept 26-30) post plays here

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  • #31
    NFL 2019 POW (3-0-0)

    Green Bay -4 Stations

    Ok, everyone knows about Green Bay's home field advantage. But this year, they are winning with defense - and turnovers. GB has +6 turnover margin due to having taken the ball away from opponents 8 times, while only giving it up twice in three games. Philly has -2 turnover margin due to taking ball away only 3 times, while coughing it up 5 times in three games. Philly's margin of victory in 0-3 ATS start is -0.7 pts, while GB's margin of victory on 3-0 ATS start is +7.7 pts. Phily's defense overall as well as its pass defense are in the bottom third of the league, giving up the ninth most points in the NFL...also in the bottom third of the NFL and more than twice as many points as Green Bay is allowing. Philly has been outscored this season despite not playing a good defensive team. Green Bay has played three of the top defenses in the league and won all three SU and ATS. Offensively they scored 27 on Denver and 21 on Minnesota. Against Philly's lesser (and injury hit) defense, Green Bay tops 30. Final score: GB 31-21.


    • #32
      NFL P.O.W. (2-1-0)

      GB -3.5 MGM Mirage and others

      Team Ranking's predictive power rating and simulations say Philly and Packers will each win seven of their remaining games, but Philly has only made the playoffs in 34.5% of the simulations while GB has made the playoffs in 68.5% of the sims. Team Ranking's predictive power rating has GB winning by 3 - even without factoring in home field advantage! By this rating, Philly has played no top 16 rated team, but GB has won and covered against two top 16 teams: #5 ranked Minnesota and # 11 Chicago. GB pads its home stats and record tonight, winning and covering 27-21.


      • #33
        NFL POW (2-1)

        GB -3.5 Circa Sports, MGM Mirage

        Was going to pick NE or GB as my play of the week. But line drop to GB -3.5 clinches it. NE will play a much tougher defense than Philly's and I have half the points to cover. GB moves to 4-0 ATS this year. GB 17-13. GB wins and covers at home.


        • #34
          I will do another play of the week. Got dumped off site twice in the closing minutes, and had to redo write up both times. Missed cutoff by one minute (2 minutes?) No worries. Good luck to all tonight!


          • #35
            NFL POW 1-2

            Bills +7 Everywhere

            This has been traditionally a home game for NE over the years and yes they have dominated the serious as of late. I get it, both teams have played teams that all have a 0-9 record combined but to me Buffalo has played better teams and the Jets were healthy in week 1 vs. last week when NE faced them. All that aside, NE comes into this game with Edeleman questionable with Ribs, Offensive line concerns which could show up against this Buffalo D, Sony Michel in dog house, and I just feel if they are to loose a division game this year it is this game. Yes theyre Defense hasnt let up a TD in now 4 games including SB, but they did play cup cakes so far this year & Buffalo too is off to a great start And I think the key here is Frank Gore- Gore can pound on this Defense and Josh Allen can extend plays(as long as he can contain his turnovers 1 or less Buffalo will win it. Ill gladly take the 7 here but will put in a small ML play too as Da Bills Circle Da Wagons and stay undefeated( Pats will still win Division though)......


            • #36
              POW 2-1

              Broncos -3 (South Point)

              Can certainly be dicey to lay a FG with a winless team, but Denver is traditionally strong at home in the month of September. The Gardner Minshew mania is getting to be a bit much. Yes, the Jaguars won last week but the offense was very mediocre in that game. Jags were gifted a TD on a muffed punt and they really only put together one outstanding drive on offense. I think the Broncos defense gets on track this and holds a below average offense with a rookie undrafted QB in check. Might be ugly and not a great game to watch but the Broncos will get it done.


              • #37
                2019 NFL P.O.W. (2-1)

                KC Chiefs -6.5 (William Hill)
                The KC offense is absolutely lethal even without Tyreek Hill. Also seeing reports that Matt Stafford is hurt, so if he can't give it a go this makes it even more valuable. The Chiefs will pull away in the 2nd quarter as they have done the entire year and win this one easily, continuing their dominance.


                • #38
                  NFL POW 2-1

                  Tampa Bay at Rams under 49.5 (CG technology)

                  I like the under here. Tampa's defense has looked surprisingly good, and they have the current sack-leader in Shaq Barrett. I don't have any confidence whatsoever in Goff, and I think he'll continue to struggle here. Gurley clearly isn't healthy, so I don't expect them to have much success on the ground here either. Winston has struggled early on, and it looks like he could be without receiver Chris Godwin in this one.The under hit in seven of Tampa Bay's last nine games.



                  • #39
                    NFL POW 0-2

                    Chiefs -6.5 MGM

                    Don't believe that the Lions can stop the Chiefs offense. Also hearing reports that Stafford is questionable. So jumping on the Chiefs before the line moves.


                    • #40
                      P.O.W 1 - 2

                      Texans -4.5 Panthers (Circa)
                      Kyle Allen played well last week but it was against the Cardinals not the Texans. Texans is the much better team, the Houston defense now has tape on Allen and Panthers defense is still struggling. Texans should easily cover the 4.5 pts. at home.


                      • #41
                        NFL POW 1-2 1pt YTD

                        Vikings +2 W Hill

                        Two of the best Defences in the game, 2 QBs with (different) problems.

                        The key here is are the injuries to Nicols and Hicks on the D line for the Bears. The Vikes want to run and run and run and run. Keeping the game away from Mack v Cousins. This would have been a Chicago advantage but the replacements on the line beoming starters means there is nothing left for rotation. Expect the Bears to get worn down and Mitch to throw 2 picks late on to seal their fate.

                        something like Vikings 20 Bears 13



                        • #42
                          NFL POW 3-0-0

                          Bills/Pats UNDER 42.5 (Wynn)

                          Pats have been in plenty of hostile environs over the years, but it’s hard to imagine one more daunting than this one with the 3-0 Bills. This matchup in Buffalo has recently been low scoring, and I see no reason to otherwise Sunday. Both defenses are very good and I see a relatively conservative game plan from both sides.


                          • #43
                            POW 2-1
                            Buffalo +7 at Westgate and many others
                            New England won by big margins each week so far although no cover last week, but the schedule is so easy the next couple of weeks Buffalo is the only defense that may be able to slow Tom down some, any 7.5 would get sucked up by the sharps, I'm on the home team division dog here no matter what Tom's record is here. I just think the D rises to the occasion today


                            • #44
                              NFL POW 2-1

                              Jacksonville Jaguars +3 (William Hill)

                              This is a Gold Sheet pick. The Las Vegas Model picks them(TP King). Tuley the Tout likes them and you know how sharp he is !!!


                              • #45
                                2019 NFL P.O.W. (2-1)

                                Ravens/Browns under 45.5 (MGM)

                                Browns have shown to have a good defense and a solid front 4 that can get after the QB. On the flip side ravens also have a good defense and it seems Baker is having trouble reading defenses and disecting zone coverages. I like this to be one of those old school AFC North defensive slugfests.