No announcement yet.

NCAAF week 4

  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • NCAAF week 4

    I am on KANSAS for the third week in a row. Is Baylor really a better team than the Jayhawks?

    385 KANSAS +8.5 for 1-unit.

  • #2
    I looked at that game earlier, especially after they man-handled Rutgers last week, but I can't get over their history. I even went back to 2017 and made a line on the 2017 matchup between Baylor and Kansas. They are improved, but it's hard for me to back them. I respect your opinion and you will probably get the money. I'm still working on a play, but this part of the season always gives me trouble, as I look back at all my plays from 2015 on. Right now I'm concentrating on the Stations' Last Man Standing as I have a few live tickets for each of the College and Pro Contests. I don't post NFL plays 'cause I have little confidence in them, but I am surprised how well I'm doing with that sport this year. Good luck as always. Am waiting to see Pittsburg's comments this week in this thread.


    • #3
      TDH, I sent you a private message.


      • #4
        I'll give you some history on the 4 and 5 tier games since beginning of the year. I have only been using this system this year so the sample size is small but I wanted to share with you the results thus far. As we all know there is no full proof system when gambling. I only listed the 4 and 5 tier games. The 3, 2 and 1 tier games there is less value. If you want to know a specific game let me know and I will post for you. Record is 13-8 thus far with 4 and 5 tier games.

        Week 1:

        5 tier games

        Western Michigan +4, system had them as -8. Final Score Syracuse 55-42 NO COVER

        4 Tier games

        Texas -12, system had them at -23. Final Score Maryland 34-29 NO COVER

        Week 2:

        5 Tier games

        Army -7.5, system had them as -28. Final Score 38-14 COVER
        App St -15, system had them at -28. Final Score 45-9 COVER
        Southern Miss (USM) -5.5, system had them at -18. Final Score UL Monroe 21-20 NO COVER
        Colorado St +14, system had Arkansas -1. Final Score Colorado St 34-27 COVER

        4 Tier games

        CMU -3, system had them at -15. Final Score Kansas 31-7 NO COVER
        Ohio St -34.5, system had them at -45. Final Score Ohio St 52-3 COVER
        Colorado +3, system had them at -7. Final Score Colorado 33-28 COVER
        Notre Dame -34, system had them at -45. Final Score ND 24-16 NO COVER
        UTSA +16.5, system had Baylor at -7. Final Score Baylor 37-20 NO COVER
        Indiana -5, system had Indian -14. Final Score Indiana 20-16 NO COVER
        Cal +2, system had Cal -7. Final Score Cal 21-18 COVER....TDH picked this game and I trailed him
        Wash St -30.5, system had them at -39. Final Score Wash St. 31-0 COVER

        Week 3:

        5 Tier game

        PSU -35, system had them at -52. Final Score PSU 63-10 COVER
        Troy +10, system had them at -4. Final Score Troy 24-19 COVER
        Indiana -15, system had them at -29. Final Score Indiana 38-10 COVER
        Duke +4.5, system had them at -10. Final Score Duke 40-27 COVER

        4 Tier games

        Temple +15, system had Maryland -6. Final Score Temple 35-14 COVER
        Army -6.5, system had them at -18. Final Score Army 28-21 COVER
        Ohio +5.5, system had Ohio -3. Final Score Virginia 45-31 NO COVER


        • #5
          System has Baylor as a 3 tier pick. It shows Baylor at -15 for this game vs Kansas.


          • TARB
            TARB commented
            Editing a comment
            Well, I certainly do not agree with that.

          • Pittsburgh
            Pittsburgh commented
            Editing a comment
            TARB gut instinct for me always goes over analytics. Computer models cant factor in motivation, emotional roller-coaster of college kids, being out coached/played, injuries, etc.

        • #6
          Week 4 NCAA

          5 Tier

          There are currently no 5 tier games. If a line moves dramatically, and pushes a game to a 5 tier, I will let you know but this will most likely be due to someone not playing and at that point, I'm pretty sure the system doesn't take this into consideration.

          4 Tier

          Wake +7.5, system has them at -1
          Michigan -17.5, system has them at -26
          Louisville +5, system have them at -5
          Western Kent +3, system has them at -7
          VT -27.5, system has them at -38
          Kansas St +16, system has them at +6
          U Southern Miss -14, system has them at -23
          UTSA - 7 , system has them at -16

          3 Tier (I'm only posting these because there are no 5 tiers this week)

          PSU - 28, system has them at -35. My guess is that the system doesn't take into consideration this game is being played on a Friday night which may impact player readiness.
          Minn+ 3, system has them at -5
          Umass -9.5, system has them at -16
          Baylor -7.5, system has them at -15
          Coastal Carolina +5, system has them at -2
          Troy -6, system has them at -14


          This system is new so please use as a guide and not some sure way that you will win. I'm still skeptical myself so don't be bad mouthing if things don't work out in your favor. You can take the information above and use it as you please. I only have the small sample size from this season to use which I have posted above. Good luck

          Last edited by Pittsburgh; 09-19-2018, 10:46 AM.


          • #7
            College Record: 5-1
            It came down to a toss up between Louisville and Minnesota and Minn +2 came out as my play, though both have their weaknesses.


            • #8
              @TDH why not play them both? I actually like both plays and also Wake as well.


              • #9
                I'm just very conservative, Pittsburg, besides I have a handful of NFL bets going on Sunday. Early in the week, I sent an PM to TARB telling him I was looking at the Minn game. It was 3 and I was holding out for 3.5, but it went the other way, so I took the 2 yesterday (a terrible number). This morning I saw on another site where Dave has Minn +3 as one of his best bets at VSIN. He used to send his potential plays through TPKing and I was wondering if this was a "GM" at the LMM. If anyone knows, let us know..


                • #10
                  @TDH understood. I don't lock my plays in until Saturday morning. Ive been burned too many times in the past where key players get hurt or suspended for a game sometime during the week leading up to a game and it bit me. The Minn game is now down to +1 ...if it keeps dropping, I might stay away from that game. I liked it at +3, hopefully some more money comes in on Maryland.

                  Speaking of TPKING, he doesn't come around much on this site anymore does he? I know he starting charging people $100/year for LMM picks and ever since he went offline I haven't heard much from/about him anymore.


                  • #11
                    Thanks, Pittsburgh. I already had Louisville, WKU, Kansas State, Minnesota and Coastal Carolina, all at good lines. I have added Wake Forest +7.5 (I could have had +8, but passed earlier). Of course, as said earlier, I am on Kansas +8.5 (against Baylor). I also do not like VT, laying about 4TD's on the road.
                    Last edited by TARB; 09-20-2018, 11:19 AM.


                    • #12
                      TARB I like where your head is...I too dislike VT laying 28 on the road. The Kansas bet is growing on me but I will most likely stay away from that game.


                      • #13
                        Some changes in the tiers for Week 4 since original post. Umass has moved up to a 4 tier since the line dropped to -7.5, Troy moved up to a tier 4 as well since the line dropped to -4.5, Wake has dropped to a tier 3 since line dropped to +7, and Coastal has dropped to a tier 2 since they are +4 now.

                        Even though sample size is small for this system, it seems like 5 tier bets have the best record and the 4 tier plays are .500...too bad there aren't any 5 tier plays this week.


                        • #14
                          Rough day today boys. One of those weeks. In Tampa for the Monday night game Tampa/Pittsburgh