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Away dogs rule first 4weeks in 2019

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  • Barryt
    replied
    That strategy doesn't even work for coin tossing.

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  • east coast
    replied
    away dogs at 70% in the NFL, expect a regression to the mean and there are 9 of them today

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  • Barryt
    replied
    Even Sea with its 4 point HF historical adv is 0-3 ATS @ home 2-0 on road.
    So definitelt HF adv is more or less dissapeared.
    With private jet travel, better nutrition and pschyological regimes, the only HF advantage is CROWD NOISE. But obviously even that seems to handled better and better each season.
    So do your team ratings and be reluctant to add anything for HF.
    All that being said, I think the PATS seem to maintain a HF advantage ..maybe it’s just fear.. and Buff wether related in DEC. . Considering where the the Cleveland stadium is located( right on the same lake as Buffalo, I’m surprised that HF hasn’t also been an wether ADV there

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  • capcondo
    replied
    This will change; probably in week 7.

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  • WJCJR
    commented on 's reply
    The “add 3 points” to home team numbers has always seemed to me like a flat-earth argument – ie. overly simplistic and rationally unsupported. The fact is, there has always been a fairly wide variation in winning margins at home; and, in this season so far, home field is not even an advantage at all! That, to me, is the most remarkable stat of all. Nevermind dogs, how many points should be added to road teams?

  • Senator L
    replied
    With stats like these do you think the olld "add 3 points" for the home team should still be applied?

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  • Barryt
    started a topic Away dogs rule first 4weeks in 2019

    Away dogs rule first 4weeks in 2019

    Underdogs ATS 60.30% 52.40% 56.50% 56.50% 47.60%
    Underdog Outright Wins 41.30% 33.30% 38.70% 48.40% 36.50%
    Away Team ATS 63.50% 46.00% 48.40% 50.80% 50.80%
    Away Team Outright Wins 55.60% 36.50% 43.80% 46.00% 42.90%
    Under Game Total 55.60% 46.00% 48.40% 44.40% 46.00%
    Stole this chart from Sharp football.
    Just imagine if you took out the Miami games
    ”All of the above is only a one-month sample from the yet-to-be-finished product. Whether or not these trends continue over the course or recalibrate remains to be seen, but the start of the 2019 season has had as unique of a start as any season in recent years”
    read the whole article at
    https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.co...trends-week-5/
    Last edited by Barryt; 10-05-2019, 09:08 AM.
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