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WEEK 3 - NFL Survivor Pool Conversation

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  • WEEK 3 - NFL Survivor Pool Conversation

    Did you get a ‘KICK’ out of Week 2?!

    I promise I won’t retire half way through this initial post…Even though I’m sure many of you would like me to, and leave all the comments up to Volo!!!

    Those of you on LAR or LAC were rewarded with stress free wins…Many other teams had some closer scores, like MIA, TB, INDY, and even DAL, but you just had a good feel your teams were looking good, and knew they were gonna find a win.

    Then there were those of us on NO and SF…That was a whole other level of ‘WTF have I done to myself?!’ The NO game was just a feeling after a qtr that CLEVE came to play, and NO was finding ways not move the ball vs. a pretty good Brownie D….BUT, the CLEV kicker came through in the clutch and gagged extra points and FG’s to give NO a lucky-ass victory, and salvation for us REALLY SMART PEOPLE that picked them this week! LMEAO!! I know there are others out there NOT on NO, that would have LOVED to see the CLEVE kicker actually earn his money, BUT, he earned a spot in the unemployment line instead. Along with the MINN kicker. What an effing job to have. I’d rather be a bomb disposal unit guy than an NFL kicker.

    Then there was SF…Cruising along with a comfortable lead into the 4th qtr…And then…Somehow SF doesn’t want to play defense anymore and go into a very conservative/stupid/scared offensive play-calling spell, that was heading towards the house of DOOM for SF, and JOY for all the people NOT on SF! At 4:12pm Pacific time, I felt all the blood run out of my body and onto the floor really freaking out the dog! That was the precise moment when Jimmy Jesus threw a pick to DET and the guy ran it down into FG range to the 7 yard line, with time to even go for a TD and put a samurai sword into my organs already devoid of fluids. BUT, as soon as the guy was tackled, the magnificent glow of the little yellow box on the TV scoreboard that said ‘FLAG!’ lit up! Could it be…Could it be that something happened to let me start breathing again??? YES….HOLDING DEFENSE!!!!! The fun wasn’t over as DET had one last chance to get into FG range, but failed. Thank you survivor God’s…Thank you. The way the day was going, he would have missed the kick anyway!

    In other action…CINN looked good vs. BALT and might have made a jump from many years of close, but no cigar years….Naaaaaaa! ATL fought off their division rivals at home vs. CAR that got some survivor players a win…As mentioned, LAC cruised, and BUFF is a rudderless ship with one of the deckhands saying C-YA at halftime!...MINN/GB ended up being a great game, if you like to see kickers figure out that they will have to get a real job on Monday as neither could be a hero, just goats…MIA found a way to stop the Dynamite Darnold train on the road…KC in a shootout, turns Mahomes into HOF material with his 6-TDs!...They will need to learn some defense, BUT that offense is humming along…TB was working their Fitzmagic vs. PHILLY, and if you didn’t see Fitzpatrick’s postgame interview, it’s MUST SEE TV!...They got a feeling down there…HOU/TENN was a weird game that I only saw through Redzone, but it was a game that either team could win, but one decided to finally do it. I guess Watson went brain-dead at the end, and TENN had a trick play that helped them….INDY ended up backing up my claim that they looked pretty good vs. CINN the week before and would give WASH a game…I guess WASH beating a really crappy ARI team didn’t prove much…BECAUSE ARI looked like a college team vs LAR that put it in drive and drove with one finger the whole day in their wipeout win….DEN has a kicker that actually MADE an FG to help his team get a win over OAK! What a concept!...JAX got on NE early, and stayed on their neck, which works well for playoff seeding down the road…DAL won, but who knows how good they are as Eli looked like the last guy to leave the party…A little desperate to keep it going, but the music has stopped. I really have know idea what that really means, but it just came out of my survivor Sunday injuried brain. Forgive me.

    In the end, it could have been another wipeout weekend IFFFFFF NO and SF went down, BUT they didn’t, and I for one just used two of my 9-Survivor lives of the season. I had SF twice (Yeah, I don’t read my rules either) NO, and LAC…I had SF in my shared pick also, and was my play of the week. At least 10% of players went out of your pools most likely…On to Week 3.


    The top favorite was worth taking last week as LAR had it on auto-pilot the whole game…This week, the same scenario is happening again.

    BUFF @ MINN…A 16-point favorite, at home vs. a POS team, with a QB starting his 2nd game, vs a very good defense, in a stadium that is as loud as a rock concert. Oh yeah, the home team just TIED their arch-rival, and has a lot urine flavor to get out of their mouths, because they are pissed they didn’t beat GB. This is a game the guys with 10-20 picks might go all in on as how can they lose?! Well, they could, but I won’t blame anyone for putting one of your picks on this one.

    SF @ KC…Like I said on my POW play, I drank gallons of MahomesAid, and mixed it with bourbon and Mountain Dew for a beverage that makes me feel like I can throw for 10-TD’s in my first two games!!! Against 10-year old…Girls. Ugh. --- KC is a verrrry tough place to play, and I’m not sure if Jimmy Jesus will find his footing on the road at the Thunderdome without a roof. SF did get a feel for the noise at MINN, but if KC’s offense can roll on an average SF D, they could get out to a good sized early lead. The more video there is on Mahomes, the more DC’s will figure out how to defend him, but we’ll see if this is the week they find the defense to slow him down.

    INDY @ PHILLY…Wentz is back in the saddle after a lot of time out of it. Rusty? Lots of reps help, but game action is another story. They played well vs. ATL who lost the game more than PHILLY winning it IMHO, but went into the ditch at TB where I think the heat could have played a roll. I feel like PHILLY will come off the loss and play hard for their (New?) leader at QB. INDY will play hard, but 2nd game in-a-row for the Colts. Possibly a more of a ‘Dangerous but a maybe’ kind of thing…

    NYG @ HOU…I like this one as one of my picks this week as NYG looked lost at DAL, and another trip back to Texas isn’t the answer to finding out what’s wrong with their offense. HOU played crappy, but stayed in the opener at NE, they were in the game at TENN, and fell just short, but I think Watson will finally break out of his malaise and lead them to a win over an NYG team that looks to be in preseason mode still.

    NE @ DET…Well, Josh Gordon will get enough practice time to help make a difference in this one, as NE crapped their pants at JAX last week, and will be taking a big step down in the defense they’ll be up against. I don’t bet against NE coming off a loss. It’s a roadie, and there are a few other games to look at, but I guess make a decision on if you think Stafford can make some hay against the NE D and go from there. I know Brady will find a way to make hay vs the DET D.

    GB @ WASH…Mr. Rodgers has played great two weeks in-a-row, and now goes on the road vs. a very average WASH team. It’s a roadie, and not the type of roadie I will be on, but I like GB in this spot coming off the tie.

    TENN @ JAX…Will there be any hangover from beating up on the forces from the Darkside last week as they sent Lord Bellacheat back home with his lightsaber between his legs. TENN isn’t great competition, but JAX can’t take their foot off the gas if they want to be considered an elite team this year. They know they can make another run deep into the playoffs and need home field to make it happen.
    Lightening in a Bortles!

    HAHAHAHAHA! I found out there is a 10,000 character limit!!! Need to put the rest below...
    Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 09-17-2018, 10:17 PM.

  • #2
    Part 2...


    NYJ @ CLEV…Yeah, I put it here, CLEV…Yeah, I did it…I almost put them in the top section! Two shots at winning and no wins…This is the gut-check that makes or breaks their season of hope…I like the CLEV D, and they had legit shots to win against some perceived good teams. NYJ beat a not very good DET team, and lost to an average at best MIA team at home. I feel that CLEVE are close to getting that elusive win, and see this as a golden opportunity to get it. There is enough video on Darnold to start game-planning more for him. Yeah Mr. Seachicken, go have another glass of MahomesAId!

    DEN @ BALT….DEN hits the road for the first time and will finally face a real defense that should slow down CARR enough for BALT to get the W after coming off the TNF loss on the road at CINN…Bounce back time. Yes, DEN has a good D, but hard to say how good yet. This might be a ‘Look elsewhere’ game…I don’t think I’ll be on it as of now.

    LOOK ELSEWHERE UNLESS YOU HAVE A GUT FEEL…Or have been sneaking shots out of my MahomesAid!

    LAC @ LAR…Yes, I didn’t put it in either group above because I think LAC is a team that can give LAR a run for their money and the 7-points is based off the beat down of a dumpster fire ARI team. Just my opinion, but I think LAC can hang with the pundits NFC super team.

    CINN @ CAR…CINN off mini-bye but on the road at CAR that has a pretty good D. I just don’t have a feel for it, so staying away…I could see either team winning.

    NO @ ATL…I almost put this into the ‘Dangerous but a maybe’ group as NO is having issues, and is lucky to have a win. ATL with two good wins won’t be letting down knowing NO can crank up the offense, and will use the home cooking to their advantage, BUT, I will give NO one more shot to right the ship, and it might happen here.

    OAK @ MIA…OAK on the road again…MIA has some confidence, but hasn’t really beaten anyone good yet…Not sure OAK is in the ‘Good’ category, but not a pushover by any means. Check weather and see if it’s gonna be hot and humid to give the fish an edge on the 10am body-clock game for OAK.

    CHI @ ARI…Yeah, yeah, ARI sucks…CHI beat SEA, and almost beat GB…Should the CHI be a favorite on the road? Trubisky still is a work in progress and ARI might find enough energy to keep it close at home, where there will probably be a good number of Bears fans. Maybe it’s a dangerous but a maybe game…I will leave that up to you, but I want to see how these guys act as a favorite first.

    DAL @ SEA…Ugh. I will be at the game, and might be drinking antifreeze at some point to stop the pain if SEA drops their 3rd in-a-row. DAL isn’t great, SEA has a million injuries and both Pro Bowl LB’s might not play again. Wilson has been sacked more than Stormy Daniels! IFFFF they get the MASH unit down to a small waiting room, maybe they find a way to make it a game. As always, watch the game for the punter! He’s doing dropkicks on kickoffs now!! LOL!

    PITT @ TB…PITT had better grab an actual win as CINN could be 3-0 after this weekend and PITT will be chasing from two and half games back if they don’t get a win, but they are in Fitzy’s world, and the force seems strong with those guys in FloriDUH! Don’t count the PITT boys out…Yet.

    OK…Just some stuff to get the conversation started. I’m sure you have thoughts on what teams should be considered and teams that should be moved to Moscow to cull the heard. Fire away, and let’s keep finding ways to keep at least one time alive!!! Keep hope alive!!!!!!

    I have the hots for HOU (And Liz Hurley) right now as my top pick…Will watch their TENN game to get a better feel. PHILLY—JAX---KC are on the radar. I should have MINN on there but they have a shot at being picked by 50% of the poolsters. IFFF you have 4-5 picks or more, not the worst thing to include them. Seems like the closest thing to a lock that you’ll find….But I bet you wouldn’t bet your life on it!

    MahomesAid for Strength!

    Good luck!

    Put some picks in as place-holders in your pools!
    Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 09-18-2018, 08:45 AM.


    • #3
      Stayed off of the big fave last week but can't do it this week. Buffalo is definitely the worst team in the league and actually had someone retire at halftime because it is that freaking bad. Gonna set it and forget it this week and hopefully move onto week 4. Probably use my second chance on them also.


      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        Don't blame you one bit on the MINN pick buck...There has been nothing shown by BUFF to lead you to believe they have a chance to win.

        MINN will be overconfident but it won't matter!

    • #4
      I think that using New England this week is courting danger. Head Coach Patricia, the former defensive coordinator at NE, knows the strengths and weaknesses of NE's offense better than anybody else and could design a defensive game plan to stifle NE's offense. There are much better options than the Patriots this week.
      Last edited by TARB; 09-18-2018, 08:41 AM.


      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        Agree on some of that TARB...There are better options for sure. I still think with Gordon as a new weapon it helps them even if he's more of a decoy as he learns the offense.

    • #5
      I have faded Buffalo the first two weeks and certainly see no reason to not continue this week. I think they are in full on meltdown mode.


      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        A lost season for them for sure...For those with multiple picks, maybe use one as an auto-pick against them each week!

    • #6
      One of my strategies is to Fade Buff every week except the 3 home division games and the bye, where I have to find a plan b.
      ill take buffalo vs Mia in wk17 if the weather cooperates.
      "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
      “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos


      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        Didn't MIA win in the snow last season? Maybe they were just in it until the end...Can't remember.

      • florabamaboy
        florabamaboy commented
        Editing a comment
        Im with you. My same strategy. Its more about choosing a loser every week than finding a winner. And between Buffalo and Arizona and the Raiders I think I can pick the worst of the three to keep the streak alive.

    • #7
      Got thru easily with LAC and for the most part SF, although the final score in the latter was closer than I thought it would be. I didn’t watch the game so I didn’t realize the anguish of Seahawk Rick.

      There are a ton of (10) non division home favourites but will anyone take anybody except Min -17 vs Buff. I have 2 entries and I’m taking Min with one and still debating the other . I won’t take Cleveland -3 nor a Wentz-less Pha. -6. Leaning strongly to Rams-7 , (3 rd California game in a row) or MIA -3 vs jet lagged Oak going from mile high to a 10am sauna, or Houston -6 over the inept offence of the Giants. Houston certainly hasn’t impressed first two games though. (Like the UNDER more though.)

      The others are

      Bal-5 vs Denv

      Car-3 vs Cincy

      KC-6.5 vs SF

      Sea -1 vs Dall . This sure looks like an UNDER to me esp first half( no end game garbage)

      I wouldn’t take NO until Ingram returns , same with PHA and Wentz.
      "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
      “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos


      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        You are lucky you didn't experience the 'Fucking A, how did they let them win' moment that I for sure thought was playing out for about 38-seconds...Pass down to the 7, and then the flag of hope was dropped and pinned on a guy holding nowhere near the play. Gotta have luck in these things, and that was LUCKY!

        I will be one of the people that won't take MINN...It might cost me, but hoping I can find a way to get my entries through without them. It should be LAR/ARI all over again.

        Wentz IS playing for PHIILY.

        That MIA pick might be a good under the radar pick. I haven't watched a full MIA game, but OAK isn't world beaters, but they have gone up against two very good defenses . Not sure how good the MIA D is.

        I am going to watch the TENN/HOU game to get a better feel for HOU...I still think being back home finally will help, and Watson will get better each game.

        You'll find a 2nd team...Lots of options.

        Good luck!

    • #8

      MINN is getting about as much love as any single team can get. I don't think I've ever seen a team hit 70%, but they wouldn't be a surprise if they did! People with multiple picks need to spread it around, but it seems like a similar set up to the LAR/ARI game.

      Teams with at least 1% in one of the pools used to get an average.

      Click image for larger version

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      • #9
        Adam's 2nd Chance pool starts this week so get your entries set up on the website soon. The 2nd chance pool has a Saturday 8pm Pacific Time pick deadline this week.

        Anyone interested in entering that doesn't have info about it, private message me and I'll send it to you.


        • #10
          With two spots left one definitely has to be Minnesota and considering the MahomesAide or Jax. Worried about the letdown for Jax and other than a fourth quarter mental safari the SF D is solid. Not sure they can take KC on the road, but it always feels good to fade bad teams vs counting on a good team to stay good. Decisions, decisions....


          • Seahawk Rick
            Seahawk Rick commented
            Editing a comment
            Can't argue with the MINN pick.

            I'm on JAX for sure...I think they will keep the foot on the gas even with the big win over NE. TENN O-line sucks...Watched the HOU game, and JAX D is better than HOU D.

            I'm not as hot on KC as I was, but still considering them. They have all the offense in the world, but no defense. IFF they develop one, nobody will beat them as of now, but SF hung within a score of MINN, and beat up on DET even though to got close late. I still think KC wins, but will look at all my options again, including NE on the road.

            Not sure why the PITT/TB line is so tight...That makes me think Vegas knows something.

        • #11

          "Fun Fact: Since we have been tracking survivor pools beginning in 2010, only 3 teams have been picked by more than the 63.3% currently on the Vikings. The highest was back in 2011 Week 5, when the New York Giants were picked by 70.6% of entries as 10 point favorites over the Seahawks. And they LOST, 25-36."

          I remember the game very well...Wasn't on it as I don't pick against the Seachickens in these pools.

          Not saying MINN will be upset, but the chance isn't ZERO!!


          • #12
            Have to Bite the bullet and take Minnesota with my one pick.Another rule which I am following is to get to week 4.
            Did not post last 2 days as I had a pacemaker put in Tuesday and spent overnight in Hospital.All OK and I could not make this up.
            Surgery was scheduled.


            • Seahawk Rick
              Seahawk Rick commented
              Editing a comment
              Volo...Better living through technology! I am glad it went well and you are back to focusing on FOOTBALL! Just pick teams that are going to win by 20 to keep the stress down!

              Be well!!!!!

          • #13
            Happy to hear all is well Mr V

            Feel better
            I have many pals with a " pacer" installed-- never think about it and all just fine---


            • Seahawk Rick
              Seahawk Rick commented
              Editing a comment
              All I can think of is an AMC Pacer! I hope Volos tus better than those things! Lol

          • #14
            Three left after a crazy bunch of games-- This week I am taking philly-- think colts cant do two upsets on toad in a row and Philly is gonna come back strong at home--
            Wont take Minn although I guess I should-- it seems obvious--
            the other one may be vs my NY Gints on Houst-- I would HATE to do that but I cannot be sentimental

            Does anyone else find it hard to shut off the point spread number and just look at the games? I do-- I have trouble switching back and forth-- was just wondering----


            • Seahawk Rick
              Seahawk Rick commented
              Editing a comment
              I like the HOU pick Compass...

              Yes, it's hard not to look at the point spreads at the beginning of the week. What I try to do is figure out how much lines are inflated on public perception from the previous week(s) and come up with my own line, and go from there.

              KC opened at 5.5 and went to 6.6 but I feel that the shiney offense is masking a weak D, and SF isn't great, but they are somebody that give you a game. Maybe the line should be around 3.5-4.

              NE is 6.5-7...That much on the road? They got beat by a very good JAX team, and DET hasn't shown much except the 4th qtr flurry. Maybe the line is 4-5 on the road as the name NE gets them 3-points right off the bat.

              PHILLY is 6.5 over INDY...I think INDY is a decent team...They were going for a winning TD late vs. CINN....They were the better team vs. WASH on the road...Not really sure how good or bad WASH is yet. Wentz is in his first game in a long time and might not get off to a fast start. Maybe a 4-4.5 line there.

              Anyway, I try to look at how good the teams are, but it's hard not to look at spreads. I fight it, but tough to do. I try to watch teams I might take on gamepass in the condensed version to get a feel for how they look that can get hidden in the final score if you only see a few highlights.

              Or I just throw darts at a board! LOL

          • #15
            It took me until Week 3 to start with teams I liked on Monday, and then by Wednesday to question everything I first thought on Monday and to go on other teams, and then think if I'm an idiot for going off the ones I liked Monday! Ahhhhhhhhhhh!

            My stupid stubbornness to not be on the BIG FAVE MINN might cost me dearly, and on top of it, I will probably double up on a team for the 3rd week in-a-row, and take another road team! So much for my stupid rules! I'm NOT on a division game though! LMEAO!

            In Adam 1 I will be on HOU (Twice) - JAX - NE

            In the other pools I am in, I have the same picks...Except for a really small one (5K pot) I'm in where I took CLEVE as one of my picks!!! I also have a bucket of Rainier beers on the line where I win if CLEVE gets a win before Jackson is fired as the head coach!!! Big stakes!

            I have HOU in an Adam 1 shared entry also.

            I could write 1,000 words on why I am and am not on certain teams, but I don't want to put you into a coma.

            There could be a good chance I change stuff up a little by Saturday for Adam 2 deadline and my other pools that are Sunday deadlines.

            There isn't a reason to not be on MINN really except for if the nearly impossible happened, but with 4-picks in most of my pools, the damage wouldn't be huge if the unthinkable happened. That thought still might put me on MINN for one entry, and get rid of doubling on HOU.

            Will sleep on it or just take more medication I bought from some high school kids to help me find some perspective!


            • Seahawk Rick
              Seahawk Rick commented
              Editing a comment
              Opps....I traded one broken rule for another....I am going on my first division game of the year with JAX/TENN....Love the JAX D and TENN has a crap O-line.